By J.T. CHADWELL
For this special edition of the Chadwell Cheat Sheet, we will dive in to some props for the big game and tie them in to all the promotions that will be available through the online sportsbooks. The Seattle Seahawks take on the New England Patriots and weather should not be a factor as the temperatures should be in the 60s.
Let’s take a look at some props and promotions to attack for Sunday night.
DRAFTKINGS $4 Million Jackpot Bonus for Longest TD Scorer
Kayshon Boutte (+320) – In this promotion, the prize is awarded for betting the player who scores the longest touchdown in the game. We want to look for a decent price so we land on Boutte at +320. Boutte is the Patriots’ best downfield threat that will see significant targets and snaps. Both the Patriots and Seahawks have very good run defenses, so it will be difficult for a running back to bust a long play. If you really want to try for a big payout, look for Kyle Williams at +1200. He doesn’t see many snaps, but if the Patriots are down in the second half and start going four wide, he could see some action and is mostly used in downfield routes.
Hunter Henry Longest Reception OVER 17.5 yards: Henry has been one of Drake Maye’s most reliable targets this season, and in a game where the Patriots could be down in the second half he will need someone to make some plays. Henry has been over this number 60% of the games this season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have allowed receptions to tight ends of 40, 16, 20, 16, 17, and 30 yards in their last six games.
FANDUEL $6 Million Jackpot for the 1st or Last Touchdown Scorer
Cooper Kupp (+260) – In this promotion, the prize is awarded for betting on the player that scores either the first touchdown or the last touchdown. The jackpot is split in half if that is two different players. We’re going with Kupp here, who can still bring it in big games. The Patriots run defense is pretty stout and the Seahawks are missing their ground-and-pound goal line back, Zack Charbonnet. Kupp is a possession receiver who has caught 59 career touchdown passes, including eight in the postseason. In the two playoff games this season, Kupp has nine catches and a touchdown. For a longer shot and a try at a much bigger payoff, Elijah Arroyo is +1100 for Seattle. Arroyo is a tall second or third tight end option that could see some snaps inside the 5-yard line.
RACE TO 40 RECEIVING YARDS: STEFON DIGGS (+890)
It’s the Super Bowl, so we are going to branch out and take some swings. The Patriots have long been known for taking away what the other team does best. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the obvious and deserving favorite in this market, but we have seen games where he doesn’t get going until late. Diggs is the Patriots’ best pass catcher and while the majority of the catches he makes are short yardage, Vrabel likes to get him going early. He had three catches in the first two drives in Denver. Smith-Njigba is an obvious favorite for this market, but this is a decent price for a good receiver.
WILL THERE BE A 2 PT CONVERSION ATTEMPT? YES (+150)
Seven of the last 10 Super Bowls have had a 2-point conversion attempted. In the day and age of analytics and the extra point being moved back to the 25, the chances are way greater than 5-10 years ago that the need for a 2-pointer arises. This has also hit in the last three Super Bowls.
SAME GAME PARLAY (+162) / CORRECT SCORE (+7500)
It wouldn’t be a Super Bowl betting article without at least trying to predict the correct final score, so I am going with Seattle 24-17. You can get 75/1 on that exact score. However, I do think this will be a fairly close, low scoring game. I just don’t see the Patriots letting this one get out of control. Their defense has been great all season long and into the playoffs. The offense has been mediocre, but this is a gritty team that can keep games close. For the +162 SGP we will take:
- Patriots OVER 12.5 points
- Patriots UNDER 24.5 points
- Seahawks OVER 16.5 points
- Seahawks UNDER 32.5 points
SUPER BOWL MVP KENNETH WALKER (+850)
Once again, we are going to look for value here. Sam Darnold is +115 and that to me is low for someone who has never played in this game and has only been a starting quarterback for two years. In the Patriots’ losses this season, they have allowed the running backs in those games to get going. Cue Walker, who has taken the lion’s share of the rushing load with Charbonnet out. Walker in the playoffs has 38 carries in two games for 178 yards and four touchdowns. He also has 78 receiving yards. If we take the average, that would give him a game of 118 total yards and two touchdowns. That is good enough to win an MVP in my book.
DRAFTKINGS 30% BOOSTED SGP (+410)
- Kenneth Walker OVER 79.5 yards – See above
- Nick Emmanwori OVER 4.5 tackles + assists – Emmanwori is the heart of this defense and an absolute stud in the secondary. He will be all over the field.
- Drake Maye OVER 24.5 rushing yards – The Seahawks will be bringing pressure and Maye is awesome at getting out of it.
- Stefon Diggs OVER 2.5 receptions – Maye will lean on his best guy in the biggest situations.
- Hunter Henry OVER 24.5 receiving yards – The Seahawks give up plays to tight ends.
- Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 29.5 rushing yards – The Patriots have gone completely away from TreVeyon Henderson.