By J.T. CHADWELL
Recap
We finished strong, hitting on multiple winners over the final 2 1/2 months to post a profit of 6.9 units.
Biltmore Championship
Even though the PGA Tour regular season is over, this will be a special edition of the PGA Tip Sheet, as the first stop in the lesser known fall series hits close to home. The PGA makes a stop this week at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove in Asheville, North Carolina. I was lucky enough to get to play this course about 12 years ago, and the players are in for a treat this week. The Cliffs at Walnut Cove is one in a series of seven courses spread throughout the western North Carolina and the northern South Carolina area. The golf course takes what Asheville is best known for, the Blue Ridge Mountains, and puts a Jack Nicklaus spin on it. Controlling distance amidst elevation change, and leaving approach shots and chip shots on the proper side of the hole will be of high importance this week. Since there is no data available for this course specifically, we will be basing some data off of some comparable courses to Walnut Cove. Comp courses we will be looking at this week are Quail Hollow Golf Club, Palm Springs, TPC Deere Run, and Muirfield Village.
THE BETTING CARD
- J.T. Poston (30/1) .2 units to win 6 units – The fan favorite this week? Poston is the local (ish) rooting interest this week. Poston grew up in Hickory, NC, about an hour east of Asheville, and played his college golf at Western Carolina, about an hour and a half southwest of Asheville. Lots more than that to like about Poston though. He finished the season on back-to-back top 25s. On top of that, he probably gets the top spot on course comps off his wins at both Muirfield Village and TPC Deere Run. Coupling that with the experience of growing up playing golf in the Blue Ridge Mountains, Poston is our top pick this week.
- Davis Thompson (28/1) .175 units to win 4.9 units – We start the betting card off with a guy who was red hot to end the regular season. But, there are also more reasons to like Thompson this week. TPC Deere Run comes in as a very close course comp for Walnut Cove, and Thompson dominated there in his win in 2024 and in 4 trips there his worst finish is a tie for 31st. He has a second and a top 20 in Palm Springs which are also Nicklaus designs.
- Corey Conners (29/1) .175 units to win 5.07 units – The second guy on the list is also the second guy on this betting card who I can putt better than… while blindfolded. But, Conners’ putter was heating up at season’s end and this is a course he should love. His elite ball striking with his irons should play really well on some of these uneven lies we will see this week. Conners also ran off a string of four consecutive top 25s at Muirfield Village, another Nicklaus design and close course comp for the week, from 2022-2025.
- Kevin Yu (36/1) .125 units to win 4.5 units – Yu is another guy that finished the season on a hot streak. Seven of his final eight finishes were in the top 40 and three of six were in the top 16. Yu has gained strokes in seven of his nine starts at the comp courses we are looking at this week as well.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (48/1) .1 units to win 4.8 units – Presidents Cup captain Geoff Ogilvy is taking a lot of heat for selecting Bezuidenhout to his team for next week. What better way to answer the call, than to show up big this weekend? Can Bezuidenhout answer that call? Well, he drank rat poison by accident as a kid, and still found his way to professional golf, so that answer is yes. Oh yeah, he is one of the best bentgrass putters in the field and has seven career top 16 finishes at the comp courses.
- Ben Kohles (53/1) .1 units to win 5.3 units – Let’s see if the form at the end of the season carries over for Kohles. During the PGA break, Kohles has been teeing it up on the Korn Ferry Tour and has posted some respectable finishes. Kohles won the 2026 BMW Charity Pro-Am on the Korn Ferry Tour earlier in the season just down the road in Greenville, SC. He also hasn’t missed a cut since May.
- Lee Hodges (76/1) .075 units to win 5.7 units – Hodges recent form at the end of the season was a little wishy washy, but there were spikes along the way with the putter, the irons, and the driver. Put all three together in one tournament and Hodges could contend here. Hodges also grades out nicely on the comp courses, having finished in five of 14 tries. Hodges is a very accurate driver of the golf ball and that should play this week.
- Chandler Phillips (82/1) .05 units to win 4.1 units – Maybe the best bang for the buck this week. It’s a pretty weak field and Phillips has been posting some nice results. Phillips finished his season with five of seven finishes in the top 25. In five tries at our comp courses this week, Phillips has gained strokes in all but one of them. He has a fabulous short game, the irons were improving when the regular season ended.
SKIP THE STARBUCKS LONGSHOTS
- Seamus Power (105/1)
- Tom Hoge (115/1)
- Hayden Springer (135/1)
- Tyler Watts (180/1)
- Aaron Wise (240/1)