By J.T. CHADWELL
Last Week: 5-0, won the Sicko Special
Overall: 16-9, 2-0 Sicko Special
RECAP
There’s no feeling like sweeping the board and that’s what we did last week. The 35.5 points that was available early in the week on Sam Houston was the difference as the line floated down to 34.5 later in the week and the game saw Texas Tech win by 35. Football, way more than other sports when betting, is crucial in finding the right number with the right price. Our top pick of the week Florida didn’t disappoint, and Jon Sumrall has the Gators rolling early in the season. The Vols are probably thankful the Gators aren’t coming to Neyland this season the way they have been playing. Speaking of Tennessee, I think the way the Vols’ defense played on Saturday will give them a chance to win pretty much any game they play the rest of the season. Texas’ defensive line was the best unit on the field that day by a mile and Tennessee still had the chance to win it late. Speaking of late, how about Iowa scoring on the last play of the game to upset Michigan in the Big House? Iowa now moves to 8-7 outright as a road underdog since 2020. That’s some pretty good ROI (return on investment). Speaking of ROI, let’s try and get some more this week on these games.
All times Eastern.
Notre Dame (-20.5) @ North Carolina (Noon, ESPN/Disney+)
I think the early sentiment for the 2026 Tar Heels was that they are improving under Bill Belichick after a win against TCU and looking good for three quarters against Clemson. I’m not so certain that’s the case. There is still a lot of volatility in this program and they just choked away a late lead at Clemson. The competition hasn’t been the stiffest to this point, and honestly I’m not sure UNC is much better than Purdue. Now this week we get seven points of spread relief and not much has changed for the Irish. Notre Dame is 13-7 as an away favorite since 2020 against the spread while North Carolina is 1-5-1 as a home underdog. The Fighting Irish offense is rolling and I think they will keep it going this week.
Tennessee (-6.5) vs. Auburn (3:30 PM, ESPN)
Been looking for a great spot to take the Vols this season and I think we might’ve found it. Auburn continues to get way too much respect, and I am happy laying less than a touchdown here this week. Auburn seems to get worse as the game goes along, and Tennessee is one of the best teams in the country at starting off hot at home. The Texas loss was tough, but given the way the defense played, I like the chance the Vols bounce back this week. Faizon Brandon is only going to learn from the experience last week and get better. Auburn has REALLY struggled in the red zone this year, converting on only 71% of its possessions (118th in FBS), while giving up a score on 91% of its possessions (103rd in FBS). Finally, Auburn is coming off a win against Vanderbilt. When coming off a win since 2020, Auburn is 11-22-2 against the spread.
NC State (+5.5) vs. Louisville (3:30 PM, ACC Network)
NC State finally finds itself in a situation it is comfortable in, being a home underdog. NC State is 10-2 since 2020 against the spread when catching points at home. I like getting the 5.5 here because I think this game ends in a one-possession game either way. Neither team has really showed the ability to pull away late in games. Louisville QB Lincoln Kienholz is also highly questionable at the moment, although this line suggests he will likely play. But, even if he does, will he be at 100%? With or without Kienholz, I still think the Wolfpack can keep this one close.
Indiana @ Rutgers OVER 55.5 (8 PM, Big Ten Network)
Data play of the week. One of the more amazing stats in all of FBS is Rutgers and its totals. Since 2020, Rutgers is dead last in FBS to the over when playing a road game, and alone at the top to the over when playing a home game. Overs hit at a 73% (30-11) clip when Rutgers plays at home! If that’s not enough, Indiana hits the over at a 64% clip (20-11) when on the road. Hoosiers quarterback Josh Hoover hasn’t looked like the transfer they thought he would be to this point, but I really look for him to get going soon, and there is no better spot to do it than in New Jersey against this porous defense. And as we saw last week, the Hoosiers can concede points, as we saw Northwestern score 23. I can assure you if Rutgers scores 20 this game will go over the 55.5.
Hawaii (-2.5) vs. San Jose State (11:59 PM, Mountain West+)
When it comes to betting college football, there might not be a better team to bet on or against situationally than Hawaii. This is the third time we have mentioned them in six weeks. But this spot is just too good to pass up. There is no better team in FBS in covering the spread at home since 2024; the Rainbow Warriors are 14-2, covering at an 87% clip! Couple that with San Jose State’s record of 11-17 against the spread since 2020 after a loss, and we have an edge here. From a matchup standpoint, I really like Hawaii’s chances throwing the ball. Hawaii is the number one team in FBS in passes per game while San Jose State ranks 117th in FBS in sacks. If the Rainbow Warriors quarterback Micah Alejado has the time to throw, I like their chances.
Sicko Special of the Week
Marshall Team Total UNDER 17.5 Points @ James Madison (3:45 PM, ESPNU)
Marshall has had it quite easy the last three weeks against MTSU, Missouri State, and Gardner-Webb. Things are about to get quite difficult now as the Thundering Herd go on the road to James Madison, one of the best home teams in FBS. Marshall covers at a decent clip on the road, and the line is a bit high for my liking to take JMU against the spread, so we pivot to Marshall’s team under. Unders hit a little bit higher rate than over when JMU is favored (15-12). The key matchup for this line, however, is how successful Marshall can be in the running game. The Thundering Herd will have to establish the run early to cover this number, and James Madison is currently ninth in FBS in stopping the run. If the Bulldogs can get the early lead and start to pull away and Marshall becomes one dimensional, I think it will be hard to score with their 115th ranked passing offense.