By J.T. CHADWELL
RECORD
Last week: 3-3 (Won Sicko Special)
Overall: 27-17 (4-1 Sicko Special)
RECAP
A 3-3 finish to the week last week almost feels like a win given some of the results we got, but we run our record to a respectable 27-17. Navy was never really in doubt and pushed the Sicko Special to 4-1. Maybe we just need to do an entire week of nothing but non-Power 4 games. Texas’ offense did its defense no favors, and Florida finished over the 21.5. At one point, the Gators had possessed the ball 22 out of 26 minutes. The Texas defense was completely gassed mentally and physically and the Gators were able to push them around easily in the second half. Texas’ playoff hopes are quickly dwindling and Ole Miss can (and very well may) put the Longhorns’ season to bed this week. Speaking of bed, if you went to bed early Saturday night, you missed a wild one in Provo. The action saw BYU lose a lead, regain the lead, and hold Notre Dame off in the final seconds. The part you have seen before? Notre Dame losing yet another regular season game to a team with half a pulse. The Fighting Irish now under Marcus Freeman have only five regular-season wins against teams that ended the season in the Top 25, and none of them finished inside the Top 15.
The last two weeks of college football have yielded some unforeseeable results, so let’s look to get back on track after a 5-7 stretch over the last two weeks. All times Eastern.
Army (+100 ML) @ Tulsa (8:30 PM, ESPN2)
Coin flip game here, so I am going to side with the team that should be able to control the line of scrimmage and the run game. It’s no secret what Army tries to do on offense. The problem for Tulsa isn’t not knowing what’s coming. The Golden Hurricane problem is stopping what’s coming. Army leads the entire FBS in rushing yards per game (357.5 ypg) and has run it 329 times through six games. Tulsa ranks 121st nationally in rush yards allowed (191.7 ypg) and next to last nationally in rush attempts allowed (309, 44.1 per game). Complement that with the fact that these teams have met each of the last two years, and the away team won both. Finally, since 2022, Army is 12-6-2 ATS on the road, while Tulsa is 10-16-1. Army +100 is the play for me.
Houston @ Utah UNDER 56.5 (10:15 PM, ESPN)
This is the third straight week we are going with a total for Houston. This is a massive Big 12 game and I think there’s a little bit of the same concept from the Alabama/Tennessee matchup in this one. Both teams have done a great job to this oint in the season of establishing the run early to set up their passing game later on. I think that will be a lot tougher Saturday night as both of these defenses are good at stopping the run. Without an effective ground game, these aren’t two teams that are capable of a run and gun offensel they rely on a lot of playaction passes to get chunks of yards. The line is 6.5 so I expect a close game as well. The cherry on top: Utah is 14-12 to the under as a home favorite since 2022 while Houston is 11-7 to the under as an away underdog.
Iowa State @ Arizona UNDER 50.5 (7:30 PM, ESPN2)
Another late Saturday night under here. Outside of the easy matchups both teams have played, and games against West Virginia for each, the scoring for both these teams has been rather tepid. In three matchups against ranked teams (Iowa, Utah, and BYU) the Cyclones gave up an average of 24 points. In those same three matchups their offense only managed 13 points per game. Arizona’s defense typically plays much better at home; the Wildcats are 20-10 to the under at home since 2022. Finally, Iowa State is 14-10 to the under in its road games in the same time frame.
LSU (-6.5) @ Auburn (Noon, ABC)
Don’t let last week fool you. Georgia was drunk and Auburn was a lucky recipient of a win. Now, lucky for us, we now get one of my favorite angles: fading Auburn after a win. Auburn is 6-16 ATS following a win since 2022. LSU hasn’t been the best team on the road in past years, but let’s hope Lane Kiffin is changing that about them. LSU is the better side here, and this Auburn team just isn’t any good. LSU wins by double digits.
Rutgers (Team Total UNDER 21.5) @ Northwestern (Noon, Peacock)
The resurgence of the Northwestern Wildcats has been nice, and Chip Kelly is really flourishing as the offensive coordinator. I wouldn’t trust this game under with Rutgers’ defense being so bad, and Chip Kelly calling plays, so let’s go to the next best thing. Rutgers struggles mightily on the road, and I like the even number of 21.5 we get here, meaning Rutgers has to score at least three touchdowns to more than likely cover this number. Rutgers is 15-8 to the game under since 2022 in road games.
Sicko Special of the Week”
San Jose State (+5.5) @ Nevada (5 PM, MW+)
Also the data play for the week. First off, this looks like a one-possession game to me, so the 5.5 points is very appealing to catch the margin difference of three, four, and five. San Jose State has been a fantastic road team since 2022. The Spartans are 16-9-1 ATS, and when we narrow it down to being an underdog on the road, they are 12-5-1, winning five of those matchups straight up. San Jose has already won three road games this season, something not many teams in FBS can claim. Now to this week, San Jose State draws one of the worst FBS teams at home. Nevada is 9-17-2 ATS as a home team since 2022, and when we narrow it down to the Wolf Pack being favored, they are 1-7 ATS and 2-6 straight up. Take the points with the Spartans, and take a little bit of that +180 moneyline as well.