By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
Wow! Another week that we barely miss a full 6/6 cash on the round robin as Scottie Scheffler finishes two shots back. We were 13 days past Groundhog Day when the Pro-Am at Pebble Beach concluded, but this week felt a lot like it. Scottie started off incredibly slow again and was nearly dead last as he made the turn on Friday. From there he played his final 54 holes in 20 under par and was a couple missed short par putts away on Sunday from taking Collin Morikawa to a playoff. It was Collin’s first full field win since the 2021 British Open. Nonetheless it’s another positive week for the tip sheet as the round robin gives us 4.11 units back for a profit of 3.11 units. This brings our yearly total to a positive 8.26 units for the year. It’s been a fantastic start, so let’s keep the gas pedal down as we head to Riviera Country Club for another Signature Event.
Genesis Invitational
It’s another week and another limited field Signature Event for the PGA Tour. This week the players head just north up to Los Angeles for a visit to Riviera Country Club, another staple course of the PGA Tour. It has been two years since Riviera hosted this event due to wildfires in the Los Angeles area last year. Riviera will also be the host to the 2028 Summer Olympic golf Event. Last week’s winner Morikawa might have found his game at the right time. Even during his struggles over the past two and a half years, Morikawa has finished in the top 10 in back-to-back trips the last two times this event was held here. This could be significant, because Riviera ranks as the second most predictive course as it relates to prior history for the player on the entire PGA Tour (only Augusta National ranks higher and comes in as the most comparable course to Riviera with a 91.8 comp score). I think one glaring observation from looking at past events here, longshots historically do not do very well. In the last four events at Riviera, only three players with odds of 100/1 or higher placed in the top 10.
PAST WINNERS AND FORM TRENDS
- 2025, Ludvig Aberg (20/1): Four top 20 finishes and three top 10s in six events, but only tied for 42nd in the event prior. **This event was held NOT held at Riviera Country Club.
- 2024, Hideki Matsuyama (75/1):– No missed cuts, but only one top 20 in five events prior.
- 2023, Jon Rahm (8/1): Went 6/6 in the top 10 with two wins in the six events prior.
- 2022, Joaquinn Niemann (60/1): Made five of seven cuts with three top-10 finishes in the seven events prior.
- 2021, Max Homa (60/1): Came in having made seven of eight cuts with three top 20s and a top 10 finish.
COURSE HISTORY AND SETUP
Riviera Country Club was designed in 1926, so the course brings a more old school approach. While they have been able to lengthen a lot of holes for the pros, Riviera’s best hole remains the short par four 10th hole, which can yield any score from a 2 to an 8. It is an old-school, tree-lined, country club course with strategically placed bunkers and medium length rough. When we look at the past four winners at this golf course, they did it in a myriad of ways. Knowing this, I think the most important stat we will be looking at heading into the week is total strokes gained over the last 3-6 months. You must have the full arsenal on display to win here. The other stat I am interested in here is par 4 scoring. The par 3s do not really yield opportunities to hit it close, all four typically play over 190 yards. The opening par 5 is one of, if not the easiest hole on the PGA Tour all season, so there isn’t a ton of scoring variance there either. The other two par 5s play over 600 yards, so it takes two incredible golf shots to even have a chance to make an eagle. The 11 par 4s are where the scoring variance takes place, so I want guys who can birdie the short ones and avoid bogeys on the tough ones. With that, this week we will be looking down the board for value this week. With all the top players in the field we will look to keep a similar setup to what’s been successful the last two weeks with Scottie headlining.
THE BETTING CARD
While I still think Scottie Scheffler is the most likely winner of this tournament, the placement market just doesn’t look appealing. We will take a little bit of a risk going in the outright market this week, because the reality is that in 27 combined starts at this golf course, Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, and Scottie Scheffler have never won. That is the most of any course on the PGA Tour.
- Tommy Fleetwood (22/1) .2 units to win 4.6 units – Overall game is in great shape and is coming off a top 5. Easily a top 5 player in the world right now.
- Hideki Matsuyama (22.5/1) .175 units to win 4.11 units – Won here two years ago when his game wasn’t in near as good of shape as it is now.
- Collin Morikawa (28/1) .15 units to win 4.35 units – In horse racing there is a handicapping angle called the light bulb angle. Collin went five years without a full-field PGA win. Now the light bulb has gone back off he comes to a track he loves. He can win again.
- Si Woo Kim (33/1) .12 units to win 4.08 units – If not for a bad round in each of his last four tournaments he might have already won twice. Lets hope for four great rounds.
- Rickie Fowler (43/1) .10 units to win 4.4 units – Great results lately and loves this golf course. Can easily get into contention heading into the weekend but can he finish it off?
- Viktor Hovland (43/1) .1 units to win 4.4 units – Every time the price gets right, Hovland is an auto bet. 43/1 is way too high for someone who has never finished outside the top 20 here. He is one of seven or eight players that can flip a switch and win a tournament regardless of current form (and his is great if you throw out last week).
- Shane Lowry (72/1) .075 units to win 5.47 units – Lowry can be a bit of a bridesmaid, and is far from Tiger Woods when it comes to closing out wins on Sunday. But this number is too high for a player of this quality who has been posting good finishes lately.
- Wyndham Clark (88/1) .05 units to win 4.45 units – Clark struggles with his approaches and is a fantastic putter. Last week he lost over six shots putting and gained over six shots on approach. The last time he did that? He won last year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Maybe he can do it this year this week.
- Tony Finau (120/1) .03 units to win 3.63 units – The exact opposite of Clark this week is Finau, terrible putter and great iron player. Last week Finau let the week in putting and struggled with his approaches. If he can keep the putter hot and hit his irons like he normally does, maybe he can light the board up at a big number.