By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
It seems like every five years at the PGA we get an oddball winner, and the trend proves itself once more. Aaron Rai was not on anyone’s radar coming into the PGA Championship, but he left with the Wanamaker Trophy in hand. There were no ifs, ands, or buts needed by the end of the round Sunday: Rai was clearly the best player all day and was incredibly impressive on the back 9. Last week’s picks were hot and cold all week. Brooks Koepka looked like a potential winner 27 holes in and then the ball striking faded, and when you are the 130th ranked putter in the field and stop striking it well, things go south quickly. Kurt Kitayama shot one of the best rounds of the tournament on Sunday firing a sizzling 63 to jump into the top 10. Unfortunately his Saturday round of 75 was the complete opposite. An even par round on Saturday would’ve put him right in the mix on Sunday, but he fell short instead. With two majors in the books now, we head to the great state of Texas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
PAST CJ CUP WINNERS, ODDS, AND TRENDS
- 2025, Scottie Scheffler (2.75/1) – Four of eight top 10 finishes in the eight events prior.
- 2024, Taylor Pendrith (90/1) – Made three cuts with consecutive top-15 finishes in the eight prior events.
- 2023, Jason Day (15/1) – Made eight cuts in the nine events prior, with five top 10 finishes.
- 2022, K.H Lee (115/1) – Made seven of 10 cuts with one top 25 finish coming into the event.
- 2021, K.H. Lee (175/1) – In the 10 events prior, made eight cuts with one top five finish.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Located in the Dallas area, McKinney, Texas, is the home to TPC Craig Ranch and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson this week. It’s going to be a weak field as Scottie Scheffler opened as the +135 favorite following his eight-stroke beatdown of the field last year. Only one other stop on the PGA Tour even comes close in course comparison here and that is TPC Scottsdale with a compatibility score of 95/100. Normally, Craig Ranch does not really favor one type of player, as we have seen short and long hitters win here. If there is one area that is less important than others, you don’t have to be elite around the greens to get the job done here. Four of the last five winners here (Pendrith excluded) lapped the field in strokes gained approach. Lee gained almost 16 shots on approach combined in his back to back victories here. Once again we will be venturing into the without Scottie Scheffler market looking for some guys hot with the irons.
THE BETTING CARD WITHOUT SCHEFFLER
- RYO HISATSUNE (32/1), .15 UNITS TO WIN 4.8 UNITS – We start the week with someone who has been a frequent flyer on many tip sheets this season. Hisatsune has made every cut except one this year and is coming off a nice weekend at the PGA Championship. Very consistent iron player and finished tied for 13th here two years ago.
- TAYLOR PENDRITH (39/1), .15 UNITS TO WIN 6 UNITS – A former winner of this event, Pendrith has been pretty consistent on Thursdays and Fridays this year, but has struggled on the weekends to get anything going. Nonetheless, he has made eight of his last 11 cuts and has gained strokes on approach in his last three.
- RICO HOEY (43/1), .125 UNITS TO WIN 5.5 UNITS – Hoey is someone I have wanted to play for a long time now, and I think we might’ve found the spot. He is an elite ball striker with the driver and irons, but can never figure out the short game or the putter to go with it. I think we have reason for optimism this week with the putter. Hoey has made seven straight cuts and has gained strokes on or around the greens in six of them. Take Aronomink’s greens out of the equation and hes actually gained strokes putting over the last six events. He gained nearly four strokes putting on these greens two years ago.
- CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT (46/1), .1 UNITS TO WIN 4.6 UNITS – “CBez” is on a nice run of form right now, making eight of his last nine cuts. He has gained strokes putting and on approach in three straight and is coming off a very nice final round of 66 at the PGA Championship. In two previous trips to Craig Ranch, he has finished tied for 12th and tied for 23rd while gaining over four strokes putting in both events, so he clearly loves the greens here and has a hot putter coming into this tournament.
- TOM KIM (51/1), .1 UNITS TO WIN 5.1 UNITS – What a fall from grace it’s been for the 23-year-old South Korean. Two years ago it looked like he was going to take the golfing world by storm. Since then it’s been a real struggle getting acclimated on the PGA Tour. Lately however, there has been a lot of green on Kim’s strokes gained profile. He is coming off a tie for sixth at Myrtle Beach and has been consistently hitting his irons very nice. The putter has been inconsistent, but in his last three trips to Craig Ranch he has gained strokes in all three events.
- AUSTIN ECKROAT (66/1), .075 UNITS TO WIN 5.02 UNITS – Strictly a form play here. Eckroat was on the card in Myrtle Beach and hit the ball arguably better than anyone he just couldn’t make a putt. He has too good of a putter for it to stay cold, eventually he has to start making some putts. Let’s hope it’s this week.
- KEVIN ROY (72/1), .075 UNITS TO WIN 5.47 UNITS – Speaking of making putts, this guy can make a lot of them. Roy is one of the best putters on tour and it has jump-started his season to eight straight made cuts and is coming off a third-place tie in Myrtle Beach. His iron play is inconsistent, but if we get a good week he will be right there on Sunday.
- MARTY DOU (94/1), .075 UNITS TO WIN 7.12 UNITS – Three seasons ago Dou finished in a tie for fifth here so we have some course history to back up a 94/1 price. Lately Dou has been a magician on and around the greens. Unfortunately he hasn’t been able to back it up with the driver and the irons. When Dou does hit is irons well, it typically yields good results. In five top 20 finishes this season he has gained strokes on approach in all five.
SKIP THE STARBUCKS LONGSHOT PICKS
- KARL VILIPS 115/1
- ZAC BLAIR 140/1
- CARSON YOUNG 170/1
- JOE HIGHSMITH 400/1
- BEN MARTIN 750/1