By J.T. CHADWELL
SWITZERLAND VS CANADA
Both teams have four points but Canada is in the driver’s seat to win the group with a draw. Switzerland really has nothing to lose playing to win the group here. The difference in first and second in this group is fairly wide, as a first-place finish will get a third-place team in the round of 32 and then likely Colombia in the round of 16. A second-place finish will likely generate a path of South Korea and the Netherlands to the round of 16. The former is an easier road.
- Low risk parlay toss ins: Switzerland +1.5 AND under 4.5 game total goals (-650)
- Average risk parlay: Both teams to score YES AND Canada under 2.5 team total goals (-125)
- High risk play: Switzerland to win 2-1 or a 1-1 draw (+225)
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA VS QATAR
This is likely a knockout game if it doesn’t end in a draw. Four points should be enough to advance as a third-place team. Bosnia’s results on paper don’t really match how well this team has played for the first 75 minutes in each game. Most recently, a late red card put B&H a man down to Switzerland, which then scored three late goals to push the result out to 4-1. I like Bosnia & Herzegovina to get the result against a pretty weak Qatar side.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Bosnia & Herzegovina moneyline (-265)
- Average risk parlay: B&H over 1.5 team total goals AND Qatar under 1.5 team total goals AND under 11.5 corners (-110)
- High risk play: 1st half correct score 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina (+230)
BRAZIL VS SCOTLAND
Brazil needs three points to win this group, and while Scotland is unsure about what it actually needs, the likelihood is that the three points the Scots currently have will be enough to advance as a third-place team. They’re up against it versus this Brazil team and a result from this game would be unlikely. It’s really hard to see Scotland truly pressing for a goal, so I would expect Scotland to lay back here and try and keep Brazil from lighting up the scoreboard.
- Low risk parlay toss ins: Brazil to score AND Scotland under 1.5 team goals AND Vinicious Jr 1 attempted shot (-600)
- Average risk play: Game total under 2.5 goals (-105)
- High risk play: Brazil win 1-0 or 2-0 (+200)
MOROCCO VS HAITI
Morocco ends the group with the easier game, the question is how much of the goal differential can it make up to grab first place in the group? When we go down the tiebreaker hierarchy, Morocco has two fewer cards, so if Morocco makes up two goals on Brazil, that and a win here should be enough to take the top spot. The difference in finishing first or second is a matchup with Netherlands or most likely Japan in the round of 32. I know I would much rather play Japan.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Morocco moneyline (-575)
- Average risk parlay: Morocco over 1.5 team total goals AND Haiti not to score (-120)
- High risk play: Morocco to win 3-0 or 4-0 (+250)
MEXICO VS CZECHIA
It’s a little hard to put a pulse on this game. Mexico has already qualified and you have to think it will rest its best players. Czechia needs some sort of result to make it to the next round but has been very poor in attack in its first two games.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Mexico under 2.5 team total (-550)
- Average risk parlay: under 9.5 corners AND under 1.5 first half goals (+108)
- High risk play: Mexico to win 1-0 or a 1-1 draw (+225)
SOUTH KOREA VS SOUTH AFRICA
The task at hand for the South Koreans is pretty simple. Get a point from this one and they’re guaranteed second place in the group. They can’t overtake Mexico for the top spot, so I’d maybe look for South Korea to play pretty conservatively and lock up the point it needs at worst.
- Low risk play: South Africa under 1.5 team total goals (-500)
- Average risk play: Both teams to score NO (-125)
- High risk play: 3 way moneyline Draw (+295)
Record
Low risk: 37-11
Average risk: 22-26
High risk: 13-34-1
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