By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
It was almost another glorious comeback for our tip sheet last week; Collin Morikawa, who shot 61 on Sunday, and missed out on a playoff by only a shot. Morikawa caught a nasty lip out on the 17th hole on a birdie putt. Instead it was Viktor Hovland winning in a playoff over Scottie Scheffler on Monday morning, as darkness would not allow time to finish the playoff on Sunday evening. Scheffler missed a 4 ½ foot putt for birdie after Hovland made from around 8 feet to secure his first win of the season. Hovland has had quite an up-and-down couple of years after winning the FedEx Cup in 2023. Nonetheless, it was his eighth career PGA victory, which, in my opinion, puts him squarely at the front of the line for best player without a major on his resumé. Could that change here in a couple weeks? I think it’s possible. All the top players will now start making their plans to get to the United Kingdom while the rest will tee it up at the John Deere Classic this week.
Past John Deere Classic Winners, Odds, and Trends
- 2025, Brian Campbell (375/1) – Made four cuts in his 10 events prior to the John Deere.
- 2024, Davis Thompson (25/1) – Made eight cuts with three top-1 finishes, including two second-place ties in his 10 events prior.
- 2023, Sepp Straka (50/1) – Made the cut seven times with a pair of top-20 finishes in his 10 events prior.
- 2022, J.T. Poston (50/1) – Made five cuts with three top-10 finishes in his 10 prior events.
- 2021 Lucas Glover (50/1) – Made seven cuts with a pair of top 10 finishes in his 10 events prior.
John Deere Classic
The sentiment from new PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp since he has taken the helm has been to grow the game of golf and get more events into large cities like Chicago, New York, and Houston. We could not be further from that strategy this week, as the PGA Tour heads to the Midwest and Silvis, Illinois (population 8,003). As a lot of big-name players start to head overseas to begin their preparation for the Scottish Open and The Open Championship in a few weeks, those who are not qualified for the season’s final major will take a run at the John Deere Classic where a win will get them into the field for The Open. TPC Deere Run has been a longstanding staple on the PGA Tour and gets away from the typical bombers’ paradise courses we see a lot of weeks. Deere Run puts a higher emphasis on driving accuracy with some short and tricky par-four holes. When we look at the results of the last five years, the middle of the odds board has been a nice place to be up until last year, when Brian Campbell stunned for his second win of the year, knocking off Emiliano Grillo in a playoff. Grillo is coming off a great showing at the U.S. Open, but at the top of the odds board this week are Ben Griffin (+1325) and Chris Gotterup (+1400). Griffin has been playing some good golf lately, but is not someone you take as the favorite. Gotterup made his pro debut here and finished in the top five, but he was 125/1 that week. This week he is 14/1 and that price seems too low. This has always been more of a week to go bombs away, so that we will.
THE BETTING CARD
- JACKSON KOIVUN (28/1), bet .2 units to win 5.6 units – A little bit deeper of a card this week, but going against favorites, so more names can find their way into the tip sheet. Koivun is making his first PGA start and he will win a tournament a lot quicker than he won’t. The 28/1 odds might be the best number we see on Koivun for a while. He is a massive talent out of Auburn and already has multiple top 10s on the PGA tour as an amateur.
- TOM KIM (35/1), .15 units to win 5.25 units – All the strokes gained numbers are trending in a positive direction for Kim, who also was a massive talent coming onto the PGA Tour. Kim won the Wyndham Championship at 21 years old and the sky was the limit. It’s been a rocky past 18 months for Kim, but he is really rounding into form and thrives on shorter courses where accurate driving is necessary. He finished third at the U.S. Open two weeks ago, so hopefully a week off to decompress will bring Kim right back to the top of the leaderboard here.
- MICHAEL THORBJORNSON (40/1), .125 units to win 5 units – Last player on my card, but young talents seem to be the theme this week, so let’s not leave him off. He definitely hasn’t been playing his best golf, but he loves this golf course. In three trips here he hasn’t finished worse than a tie for 21st. He is a superb talent in a field that is mostly devoid of such players.
- BLADES BROWN (63/1), .125 units to win 7.87 units – Like Koivun, Brown isn’t far from winning on the PGA Tour and it’s going to happen quickly. Brown has finished nine of his last 11 in the top 20, playing in events split between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour. That includes three top-15 finishes in PGA events. Blades is playing extremely well and acclimating himself to the intricacies of the Tour more and more each week.
- MAX HOMA (65/1), .1 unit to win 6.5 units – Finally, a veteranmakes this week’s card. Homa has been forgotten about as a serious contender on the PGA Tour, but he still has what it takes to be a top 25 player, and in this field and with these odds I am willing to take the chance. Homa is really starting to play a lot better. He has three top 25s in his last seven events and is coming off a tie for 20th in Canada where he gained strokes in all four aspects of his game. The putter has been hot and the driver has been cooperating. If he can find his wedges this week he will contend.
- DENNY McCARTHY (63/1), .1 units to win 6.3 units – A little bit of a stab in the dark here a week after McCarthy played some nice golf in Connecticut. Denny finished tied for 14th last week at the Travelers. Outside of that, it’s been pretty vanilla for the best basketball player on tour. But after an uplifting week, McCarthy now gets a trip to Silvis where he has finished tied for 11th or better in four straight trip to this course..
- JACKSON SUBER (75/1), .125 units to win 9.37 units – Back to the youth. Suber is on fire right now and I thought this number was a little outrageous. Suber had been showing flashes, and now we are starting to get some consistency with it. He has three top 20s in his last six events and faded just outside of that this past week in Connecticut. The course should fit his driving accuracy nicely, and if he can put four rounds together I expect him to be near the top.
- EMILIANO GRILLO (92/1), 0.075 units to win 6.9 units – This is the second time in five weeks we’re counting on Grillo, but once again he is an obvious pick that has to be on the card. He will be on a lot of cards this week, but for good reason. He has had back to back top 25s and has finished second here twice in his past three trips. That’s enough to sell anyone on 92/1 odds.
SKIP THE STARBUCKS LONGSHOT PICKS
- Luke Clanton 170/1
- Carson Young 190/1
- Mark Hubbard 210/1
- David Lipsky 275/1
- Dylan Wu 425/1
- Troy Merritt 1900/1