By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
Another week and another player on the betting card with a solo lead on Sunday. And this time at The Masters, of all places. Unfortunately it was yet another Sunday that lead didn’t hold as Cameron Young couldn’t get it across the finish line. We have had some rough beats the last month and a half wiping out the profit built up from early in the season. Although we are back to net zero for the year, the show must go on, and this week the show heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina for another signature event.
PAST WINNERS AND FORM TRENDS
- 2025, Justin Thomas (20/1) – Made all nine cuts coming in with four top 10 finishes.
- 2024, Scottie Scheffler (4/1) – Made all nine cuts coming in, winning three events as part of four top 10s.
- 2023, Matt Fitzpatrick 30/1 – Made the cut in five of nine previous events with a pair of top 10 finishes.
- 2022, Jordan Spieth (35/1) – Made seven of nine cuts with a top five finish.
- 2021, Stewart Cink (125/1) – Made the cut in five of eight prior events, finishing in the top 20 twice.
RBC Heritage Open
No time to rest after a tough week for many, as the signature events pick right back up following a grueling test at Augusta National. This week the course is Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina, a longstanding stop on the PGA schedule. Harbour Town is a Pete Dye-designed course that requires precision into quite small greens. Like many of the recreational courses in Hilton Head that most of us have played, there are lots of tree-lined dogleg fairways to maneuver through as well. From a course setup standpoint, this course grades out almost last of all courses on the schedule in distance needed off the tee. Many players that do not hit the ball far have had success over Harbour Town. Close approaches and accuracy off the tee is the best way to attack a majority of the holes throughout this layout. Luckily, there are some players in great form right now that fit this profile. Secondly, it is important to look at how much impact past success has on predicting future success around this course. Harbour Town grades out above average on past history score, so we will also be looking for some players who might not have the best of form currently rolling, but based on past results here could have some value. Finally, with Harbour Town being more of a unique setup, we will look at past results on some courses that rank high on compatibility. Those two courses this week will be the Plantation Course at Sea Island, and Colonial Country Club. Last week’s Masters winner Rory McIlroy will not be in the field, but runner-up Scottie Scheffler will be looking for his first win of the season.
THE BETTING CARD
For this week’s betting card we will be going back to a round robin format. We will be looking at six placement selections and playing 15 different four-leg parlays for these placements at .07 units per parlay, for a total of 1.05 units this week.
- SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER WIN +370 – Did Scottie dig down and find another gear that he only knows at Augusta over the weekend? He played his final 36 holes bogey free, the only player to do that in Masters history, and tallied a 12 under total. It looked like he was finally hitting those iron shots we have grown accustomed to seeing him hit time and time again. If this was an anomaly chalked up to The Masters then so be it. I’ll take my chances that play carries over this weekend to a tournament he won 2 years ago, while many of the other top contenders might still have Augusta on their mind.
- 2 LEG SGP RUSSELL HENLEY TOP 20/PATRICK CANTLAY TOP 30 +126 – This might be an unpopular opinion, but I thought Henley probably deserved the green jacket on Sunday more than anyone. He played a brilliant 18 holes, almost never found himself out of position, and with a slightly hotter putter he would have been the winner. Henley is a top 20 machine and this course fits him perfectly. We pair him with Cantlay who also loves Harbour Town in his previous trips here and, even though he can never find the trophy for tournaments, knows how to close for placements late.
- JT POSTON TOP 30 +102 – The early part of the PGA Season doesn’t really fit Poston’s game very well, and even though the last two tournament placings don’t look great on paper, the data suggests he is hitting the ball pretty well right now. Now we get Poston on a course that really fits his game much better and the course history backs it up. He was tied for 11th here last year, tied for fifth in 2024, and tied for third in 2022. Toss in four ties for 21st or better (including ties for fifth and seventh) since 2023 at the two closest comp courses on tour and Poston looks like a nice play.
- RYO HISATSUNE TOP 30 +112 – Back to the well on a player having a wonderful season. Hisatsune has finished top 30 in six of his eight starts so far this season, and has gained on approach in every one of his starts except one. Over the last 15 months Hisatsune tied for 18th at this event last year, a tie for 17th at Sea Island, and a tie for sixth at Colonial. This guy has been cashing checks all season, and I don’t expect that to end this week.
- BRIAN HARMAN TOP 30 +116 – Harman has a game built for Southeastern coastal courses. Drive it straight, and use a fantastic short game to cover the iron misses. Harman played a fantastic round of golf on Sunday at Augusta, and now comes to Harbour Town on the back of four straight rounds gaining shots on approach, and 3 straight gaining shots around the greens. The putter heated up a bit last week, so if he can continue putting well, Harman might not only cash a top 30, but be well in the mix on Sunday. He tied for third here last year and tied for 12th in 2024. The last time he missed the cut at this event was 2019 and he is five for his last six at Harbour Links finishing in the top 30.
- ANDREW PUTNAM TOP 40 -120 – Putnam almost cashed us a monster outright ticket two weeks ago in San Antonio. While that might not be likely in a signature event, Putnam plays his way into another course that should fit his liking. Since 2022 he has played Harbour Town and the two comparable courses nine times, only missing two cuts, and cashing in the top 40 in five of the nine events. Putnam is on a good run of form though as he has gained way more strokes than he has lost in his starts this season. He has only lost strokes in two events, and the high majority of that came from poor putting. Putnam has now gained in three straight events with the putter, so hopefully that continues this week.