By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
We had a chance to cash on Sunday, but extremely mediocre rounds from Justin Thomas, Brian Harman, and Alex Smalley derailed any chance at hitting a ticket. No one seemed to want to win the baby blue old-school Ford Bronco and plaid jacket that players receive for winning the Charles Schwab, until Russell Henley made three straight birdies to end his round and force a playoff with Eric Cole. Henley then made his fourth birdie in a row by making birdie on the first playoff hole while Cole missed his birdie putt. It wasn’t a terrible week for picks with five of our players making the cut and all finishing in the top 25. Smalley had the best chance of them all, but could not hit it in the same zip code of the hole on the final six holes. We move on to Memorial, and yet another signature event where Scottie Scheffler is in the field … and yet another event where we will be steering clear of him.
PAST MEMORIAL WINNERS, ODDS, AND TRENDS
- 2025, Scottie Scheffler (+275) – 8/8 made cuts, 6 top 10’s, 2 wins in 8 events prior.
- 2024, Scottie Scheffler (+375) – 8/8 made cuts, 8 top 10’s, 4 wins in 8 events prior.
- 2023, Viktor Hovland (+2000) – 8/8 made cuts, 4 top 10’s 2 top 3’s in 8 events prior.
- 2022, Billy Horschel (+5000) – 6/8 made cuts, 3 top 10’s, 2 2nd’s in 8 events prior.
- 2021, Patrick Cantlay (+2000) – 4/8 made cuts, 4 top 25’s in 8 events prior.
MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
This week the PGA heads north to honor another legend, and maybe the biggest legend the game has ever seen, Jack Nicklaus. Dublin, Ohio and Muirfield Village Golf Club have been the longstanding host of the signature event. In this day and age, it is rare that players get tested two weeks in a row, but Muirfield Village always poses a stern test with a high winning score. Highly precise iron shots are needed to win here, as missing the green is more penal than just about any other golf course on tour. Hence the reason the last three winners of this event have been Scottie Scheffler twice and Viktor Hovland when he was playing like the world’s number 1 player. That being said, there is reason to look deeper for some contenders. Guys like Adam Hadwin, Nick Taylor, and Denny McCarthy have all contended and finished inside the top five over the last three years.
With most big names in the field this week, we will look to steer away from outrights and head back to the placement market to hopefully find some value and some winning tickets.
THE BETTING CARD
This week’s card will feature a Round Robin of 6 placement bets (4×6). This is a series of 20 different parlays at .075 units apiece.
- Xander Schauffele Top 10 (+138) – I like the price here. Schauffele has played here seven straight times and never finished outside the top 25. Oddly enough he has only finished inside the top 10 once, but the top 15 in four of them. Overall, Schauffele has four top 10s in his last six events along with a tie for 12th. Translation, he is going to be right there, we just need the dominoes to fall our way with the placement and at +138 I’ll take that chance.
- Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 (+118) – Matsuyama has been hot and cold at Muirfield, and has even won this event before. Overall, he is six for 12 in his career in the top 20 at Muirfield, and in all but 1 of those misses he lost multiple strokes to the field putting. Matsuyama comes to this year’s Memorial having gained strokes putting in two straight, five of seven, and eight of 11 events.
- Sepp Straka Top 20 (+146) – The most undervalued PGA player on the books comes to Muirfield once again undervalued in my opinion. Straka needs a certain type of course setup to succeed, hence the big prices on him sometimes, but this seems to be one of them. The last three events here have seen him finish tied for 16th, tied for fifth, and tied for third. Straka loves these greens and in his only tournament losing strokes putting here, he only lost .08 strokes for the entire tournament. The putter was cold in his home country of Austria last weekend at the Austria Alpine Open, but the ball striking was not. Let’s hope these greens rejuvenate that putter a bit.
- Nick Taylor Top 30 (+116) – Taylor has been a placement cash cow this season. In his last 18 events, Taylor has only missed two cuts and finished outside the top 40 five times. He has finished top 30 here in back to back tries, and is returning to Muirfield off a fourth-place finish last year. The icing on the cake is Taylor’s putting stats the last two tournaments. He has gained over four strokes to the field in back to back events to match up with his streak of 10 consecutive events not losing strokes around the greens or on approach. Just some halfway decent drives off the tee this week and top 30 will not be in question for Taylor.
- Alex Smalley Top 30 (-114) – We will keep this one short and simple. Smalley is red hot right now and this golf course fits him nicely. He has finished in the top 30 in eight of his last nine events, including five of six finishes in the top 15. He comes to Muirfield off a tie for second at the PGA Championship and a tie for third last weekend at Colonial. We ride the hot hand.
- Tony Finau Top 40 (-106) – Finau has really seen a drop in form over the last 12-14 months. However, there have been flashes as of late that it could be on it’s way back. In the last four events Finau has gained more strokes than he has lost in the four main categories, the Achilles heel for him remains the putter, but the short game has really been on point. In his last 13 events, Finau has finished inside the top 40 seven times. His track record at Muirfield is quite impressive, finishing in the top 40 here in every trip but one, and that was in 2019.
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