By J.T. CHADWELL
We’ve already covered the top bet for each of the 12 groups in the World Cup, and the market for top goal scorer and assists leader.
The third and final cheat sheet for the World Cup will look at some futures plays for the tournament winner, as well as a few teams to advance to certain rounds throughout the tournament. First let’s look at a few plays I have my eyes on for teams that won’t win this tournament, but could advance further than the experts think:
BELGIUM TO REACH THE QUARTERFINAL (+150)
Belgium will be heavily favored to win Group G, which will be important for the rest of its draw. The round of 32 would see the Belgians play a third-place team from Groups A, E, H, I, or J, and of the options available Senegal is probably the most likely. A win against Senegal puts Belgium to the round of 16 where it would be most likely to face Turkey or the United States. While European teams can tend to struggle in the atmosphere the Americas present, Belgium could see no significant competition en route to the quarterfinal.
ENGLAND TO LOSE IN EITHER THE ROUND OF 16 OR QUARTERFINALS (+125)
The Belgians get the fortune, and the English draw the short stick. England should win Group L and get a fairly easy match in the round of 32. That’s where things get dicey. England will most likely have to travel to Mexico City to take on Mexico in the Azteca, where visitors struggle mightily with the elevation and El Tri thrives. Should England get past that matchup, a quarterfinal in Miami in the middle of the summer against Brazil probably would be waiting. Pulling off two Americas wins back-to-back on the road in conditions they are not used to would be a tough task. Should England fall back to second in its group? Another easy round of 32 matchup would be followed with a round of 16 fixture against the top team in this tournament, Spain.
UZBEKISTAN TO QUALIFY FOR THE ROUND OF 32 (+225)
Eight of the 12 third-place teams will qualify for the round of 32, so this price seems generous for a decent team out of Asia. Not much separates the Uzbeks from DR Congo, the other low ranked team in their group. DR Congo is ranked 46th and Uzbekistan is 50th. However, the price difference is massive. DR Congo is -120 and Uzbekistan is +225. Uzbekistan has only lost four games since the start of 2024 and all four are playing in the World Cup (Qatar twice, Canada, and Uruguay). Furthermore, there have been only the five games that the Uzbeks didn’t net a goal in that time frame, and a goal against either Portugal or Colombia will highly increase Uzbekistan’s chances to qualify as a third-place team in the group should they knock off DR Congo.
COLOMBIA TO REACH THE ROUND OF 16 (+110)
I really like this spot for the Colombians. We just spoke highly of Uzbekistan, but for a team like Colombia, that should be a layup, as should the DR Congo. Now the best part: Outplay Portugal on close to home soil, and Colombia would win Group K and draw a third-place team in a round of 32 matchup where La Tricolor would likely be heavily favored. Should Portugal win the group, Colombia probably would finish second, leading to a likely round of matchup with Croatia. I would lean Colombia there and the odds tell us the same thing: Colombia is +110 while Croatia is +150 in this same market.
FRANCE TO REACH THE SEMIFINAL (+130)
Final play in the advancement markets, we will turn to the 2018 champions. It’s no secret European teams have tended to struggle in competitions in the Americas. Luckily for France, its most likely path to the semifinals doesn’t see any likely matchups against teams from the Americas, and totally avoiding the best ones (Brazil and Argentina). Regardless of the draw, this team is loaded with options and will be a large threat to hoist the trophy at the end of the Cup.
Which brings us to our pick for the outright winner…
WORLD CUP OUTRIGHT PICK: FRANCE (+475)
For me, this outright pick really came down to two things. First, France is absolutely loaded with attack. Ousmane Dembele is the favorite to win the Ballon D’Or trophy this year which is awarded to the best player in the world after helping PSG win its second consecutive Champions League crown. He joins with Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise to comprise a formidable top three in the attack. Both Mpabbe and Olise are being considered for the Ballon D’Or as well. Should things stall out a little bit in matches with that trio, France has the luxury of Desire Doue and Bradley Barcola available as fresh legs off the bench (they could see a start or two as well). Rayan Cherki should play an attacking midfield role with Adrien Rabiot, N’golo Kante, and Aurelien Tchouameni holding things near the back in a more defensive role. France features veteran center backs Ibrahima Konate and Dayot Upamecano to hold the back line steady. Simply put, the French are loaded top to bottom and while the Americas’ climate and atmosphere might not be in their favor, their skill outweighs that concern. It also helps that, as mentioned above, France drew the opposite side of the bracket from Brazil and Argentina should all three win their group (which they are heavily favored to do). Playing familiar European competition will be a huge advantage for the French and set up seemingly a juggernaut semifinal matchup with Spain, where the odds are about dead even. Both France and Spain are +475 to win the Cup, but give me France’s experience and attacking depth. Finally, at +475 we can set ourselves up for a hedge late if France does indeed run into Spain in the semifinals.
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