By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
It was another good week for the PGA tip sheet in Scottsdale. We get four of the six placements home to end up plus-1.6 units for the week. Rasmus Hojgaard and Maverick McNealy tried their best near the end to blow their placements, but Hojgaard made a 10-foot par save and McNealy made two birdies coming in to keep it safe. Scottie Scheffler missed the playoff by a shot after his worst round of professional golf in four years and Kristoffer Reitan finished tied for 41st, just missing a top 40 by a shot. Had both Scheffler and Reitan hit, it would’ve been a full cash and almost 12 unit week. The positive week brings our four-week total up to 5.15 units of profit in the first month of the season.
AT&T Pro-Am at Pebble Beach
The PGA returns to the most famous golf course in the United States this week for the Pro-Am at Pebble Beach. Players will also get a round in at Spyglass Hill as part of the Pro-Am format. In addition to being such a storied venue, Pebble Beach is quite different to the Stadium Course at Scottsdale, so we may see a few new names pop up on the tip sheet this week. Pebble is a course you have to attack early. The first seven holes can yield lots of birdies. The final 11 holes are a very good test of the entire golf game. This is also the first signature event of the season, and only the third time a signature event will be contested at Pebble Beach. All the top players will be in the field this week, including Scottie Scheffler. The past twi winners of this event won’t really tell us much. Rory McIlroy got the win last season and was in fantastic form as he was prepping to have his game ready to complete the career grand slam at Augusta. In 2024, Wyndham Clark went nuclear on Saturday for a 12 under round of 60 in an event that ended up being rain shortened.
PAST WINNERS AND FORM TRENDS
- 2025, Rory McIlroy (12/1) – Six top 10’s and a win prior to winning at Pebble Beach.
- 2024, Wyndham Clark (80/1) – No missed cuts, but no top 20 finishes prior to winning at Pebble.
- 2023, Justin Rose (30/1) – Four top-30 finishes in a row and made four of five cuts coming into the event.
- 2022, Tom Hoge (60/1) – Made seven of 10 cuts with two top-five finishes coming into the event.
- 2021, Daniel Berger (45/1) – Made six of seven cuts coming in with two top-10 finishes and five top-30s.
COURSE HISTORY AND SETUP
Pebble Beach has some really small greens, so we will be looking once again for players who have had success in the GIR category over the last 3-6 months. Total driving will be another key statistic this week, and maybe the most important. The par 5’s at Pebble are VERY attackable with great drives. Great drives can lead to eagle chances, while poor drives will most likely result in pars every time. Four of the past five winners here have been above average in distance and accuracy off the tee. In the two signature events held here, Rory and Wyndham both gained at least four shots off the tee. Finally, the third most important factor when playing Pebble Beach is knowing where to miss and not hitting it into those spots. A simple 5- or 10-yard miss to the wrong side can cost you up to three shots on some holes (maybe even five, if you ask the 2010 leader on the final day, Paul Goydos). There is no better golfer on the planet, and maybe in the history of the game that keeps the ball clean and on the correct side of the golf course than…
THE BETTING CARD
Scottie Scheffler. He is winning 50% of his starts right now and he didn’t win last week. On top of that, there aren’t many golf courses left on the PGA Tour that Scottie has seen three times and hasn’t recorded a win. As mentioned earlier, Scheffler played his worst round in four years in the opening round at Scottsdale and still only missed the playoff by a shot. With some decent prices hanging out a good way down the board, the strategy will stay the same this week as last week: a placement round robin (3×6). In a 3×6 round robin, we are taking six selections in three-leg parlay increments and placing 20 three-leg parlay bets out of the six selections. Here are the selections for this week:
ROUND ROBIN (3X6) .05 UNITS APIECE 1 UNIT
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- Scottie Scheffler to win (+270)
- Russell Henley top 20 (+105) – Henley comes into this event on one of the more impressive consistency streaks of the last 4-5 years by someone who isn’t really regarded as being a top player. Henley is currently on a streak of 10 straight top-20 finishes. During that streak he has only lost strokes to the field in any of the four main categories five times (3 putting, 2 off the tee). No need to hop off the Russ bus just yet as he finished top five here last year and will be looking for more this year.
- Patrick Cantlay top 20 (+110) – Cantlay has never really been a guy that gets the job done on Sunday. In fact, he hasn’t won a tournament in over 3 1/2 years. But in his last 25 starts he has 14 top-20 finishes. In his last six trips to Pebble Beach, four have resulted in top 20s and in one of them he tied for 21st.
- Sepp Straka top 30 (+102) – Straka has been a little up and down since last summer, but one thing that has stayed consistent is his approach play. The putting has been the downfall in bad tournaments, but the bumpy poa greens at Pebble will hopefully neutralize some of that. This is a very good number. Sepp has posted 12 top-30s since March and three straight top-30s at Pebble Beach.
- Nick Taylor top 30 (+112) – Taylor is a previous winner of this event and has played it more than most in this field. He might have some of the most underrated consistency in the field as well. Since April, Taylor has finished top 30 in 12 out of 17 events. Throw in six out of 12 trips to Pebble in the top 30 with his current form (4 straight top-30 finishes) and I think this is a great buy.
- Jason Day top 30 (-124) – Sticking with the theme of seasoned Pebble players this week, we may have saved the best for last. Day doesn’t have striking current form, however it isn’t bad by any means. I am way more interested in his incredible past history at this tournament and any others Pebble Beach is the host. Day has played this tournament 15 times and the U.S. Open once for a total of 16 trips here. He has only finished outside the top 30 in two of those! Three of his last four events have also ended in top 25s.