By J.T. CHADWELL
Editor’s Note: J.T. has a secret, folks. He loves betting golf! And he’s pretty damn good at it, too. So he’ll have a weekly article with his recommended plays for every PGA tournament this season.
Mahalo, my friends …
Grab some POG juice and champagne, or a mai tai, and enjoy the beautiful views from Hawaii this week.
I’m going to outline a detailed betting preview of each PGA Tournament, along with my own betting card for the week based on the allocation of 1 unit. The calendar season starts in Oahu, Hawaii at Waialae Country Club. Let’s dive in.
Key Course Metrics
- Waialae strongly favors accurate drivers of the golf ball.
- Contested at just over 7,000 yards, Waialae is one of the shorter golf courses on the PGA Tour. Long hitters do not get an advantage here.
- The last three winners have gained over a shot per round on approach and have been greater than 5% more accurate than the field off the tee.
- Past winners have been excellent in strokes gained around the greens.
Past Winners and Form Trends
- 2025 – Nick Taylor (110/1). One top 25 finish in the previous 17 starts prior to his win.
- 2024 – Grayson Murray (400/1). Only six PGA starts in the six months leading up to his win, and yielded two top-10 finishes.
- 2023 – Si Woo Kim (45/1). Had five top-15 finishes in the previous 15 starts prior to his win.
- 2022 – Hideki Matsuyama (18/1). Two top-5s and a win in the previous 14 starts prior to his win.
- 2021 – Kevin Na (75/1). A pair of top-10s and a top 5 in 15 starts prior to his win.
As we look at the past form of the last five winners, there really isn’t much to unpack. Unlike previous years, this year’s version of the Sony Open is the first event of the calendar instead of the second, so most players in the field will not have played an event in at least a month, some even two months, and some even longer. The odds of previous winners also stick out as four of the past five winners have been over 40/1. The focus this week will be on finding players at a decent number that fit the course mold for Waialae, as opposed to players in great form.
This week’s betting card
RUSSELL HENLEY +1200 (.325 UNITS TO WIN 4.2 UNITS)
Henley had a fantastic finish to the 2024 season and has not finished outside the top 20 since June, and of all the favorites teeing it up this week, none have as good a track record as the 2013 Sony Open winner. Russ has all the tools to win here and has been the best player on this course, so it would only be fitting if he won what could be the final edition of the Sony Open. With the lukewarm price, and not a ton of value deep down the board, we can fit a lower priced Henley onto the card.
SI WOO KIM +2000 (.175 UNITS TO WIN 3.67 UNITS)
Of all the top players teeing it up this week, I am not sure anyone had a better finish to the 2024 season. Kim was on fire through the fall amassing six top-20 finishes in seven events with three top 5s. Si Woo is very accurate off the tee and has been striking the ball wonderfully, so if the putter can get mildly hot he could be holding the trophy at the end. Just like Henley, Si Woo is a past champion here and gains an average of .88 strokes per round on the field.
COREY CONNERS +4000 (.11 UNITS TO WIN 4 UNITS)
When hitting it his best, Conners is one of the best total drivers of the golf ball on the PGA Tour. He can hit it a long way and drive it through a thimble. His iron play is even better. Conners’ problem throughout his career has long been with the putter and his last three trips to Waialae have been no different. Conners grades out very nicely on this course with his accuracy and iron play. Let’s hope Conners makes enough putts through the week to get into contention on Sunday.
CHRIS KIRK +4000 (.11 UNITS TO WIN 4 UNITS)
He loves playing in Hawaii and boasts a win at Kapalua in 2024. Also, in 50 rounds played at Waialae, Kirk gains an average of 1.16 strokes per round to the field. Kirk has always struggled with the putter, but the second half of last season was an improvement. He was striking the ball with the best of them at the end of the season.
MATT McCARTY +6500 (.075 UNITS TO WIN 4.57 UNITS)
This would be my top pick for the price we get this week. I really think McCarty could be a breakout player on the PGA Tour this season. He comes into 2026 on the heels of 4 top 15’s in his final 5 starts. McCarty burst on to the PGA Tour in 2024, winning his first start after a phenomenal season on the Korn Ferry Tour. Since the win McCarty has been very up and down as he adjusts to life on the PGA Tour. McCarty is extremely accurate off the tee and an above average iron player. If he puts it all together this week, he can definitely win here.
MICHAEL KIM +7500 (.075 UNITS TO WIN 5.7 UNITS)
More of a number grab here than anything else. Kim proved last season he is more than a grinder and can win multiple tournaments out here. Kim had a great finish to 2025 winning the French Open in October on the DP World Tour in a fairly strong field, and outdueled Brooks Koepka down the stretch. A 75/1 line is simply too high for an iron player of Kim’s quality. He has gained over three shots on approach in five of his last six events. He should be closer to the 40/50 range.
RYAN GERARD +7500 (.075 UNITS TO WIN 5.7 UNITS)
Another number grab for a great iron player that ended the season in form. Gerard flew halfway across the world to compete in the Mauritius Open on short notice to gain enough OWGR points to qualify for the Masters. Needing a fourth-place finish, Gerard finished second, losing in a playoff to Jayden Schaper. He played the weekend in a blazing 15 under par that week. Gerard’s two biggest strengths are his accuracy off the tee and his short game, two things most pivotal in winning this tournament. He has lost strokes putting in a lot of events lately, so let’s hope the putter gets hot and he can contend.
TAKUMI KANAYA +18000 (.025 UNITS TO WIN 3.6 UNITS)
Kanaya was one of my favorite longshots to play the second half of last season and almost cashed us two tickets in that time span. Kanaya had an incredible amateur career, but like most struggled to find his footing once turning pro, so the talent is there. Kanaya grades out excellent on this course as he is one of the straightest drivers of the golf ball in the field. He is another player that finished 2025 on a high note amassing five top 5 finishes worldwide since August, with two of those coming on the PGA Tour. The course will fit him nicely, so let’s hope the form continues into 2026.
NICK DUNLAP +20000 (.025 UNITS TO WIN 4 UNITS)
Flat out, Dunlap is way too talented for a 200/1 price. We bet him at the RSM back in November at 350/1 and he almost got the job done. He finished 10th here last year so he has some positive experiences to lean on. The course fit isn’t the best, and when Dunlap was at his worst last year it was because he couldn’t find a fairway. Dunlap was one of the worst drivers of the golf ball, if not the worst, last season. But Dunlap is 21 and already has two PGA Tour victories. With his level of talent I will blindly bet him each week at 200/1.