By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
There’s nothing better than breaking a cold streak, except maybe doing it at a major. We scored a big and badly-needed win last week as Wyndham Clark took control of the U.S. Open during some favorable conditions late into the evening on Thursday and never looked back. Clark made three birdies and an eagle in a six-hole stretch to find himself three shots clear of the field and never relinquished the lead, giving us a 6.25 unit win for the week.
Clark took a six-hole advantage into the final round, which on any normal golf course would be pretty much insurmountable. But on Shinnecock, no lead is safe, and midway through the round, Clark was in a battle with Sam Burns. Burns has had his share of struggles late on Sunday in tournaments, but this week was anything but that. Burns played by far the best round of anyone in contention and had birdie putts at the 17th and 18th holes that would’ve put added pressure on Clark, but he burned the edges on both. While Clark gave up most of his six-shot lead, he was absolute nails down the stretch, making multiple tough shots for par and eventually two-putting from around 50 feet for the victory. It’s Clark’s second major win and his second top five finish in the last four majors. With the form he is in, it would not surprise me at all if he is a major player at The Open Championship next month, where he finished tied for fourth a year ago. The PGA now heads slightly north to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship.
Past Travelers Winners, Odds, and Trends
2025, Keegan Bradley (+4000) – Made eight cuts with five top-20 finishes and three top 10s in his nine prior events.
2024, Scottie Scheffler (+375) – Posted eight top-10 finishes and five victories in his nine events prior.
2023, Keegan Bradley (+8000) – Made seven cuts with one top-10 finish in his nine events coming into Travelers.
2022, Xander Schauffele (+1800) – Made seven cuts with five top-20 finishes and a top 10 in his nine events prior.
2021, Harris English (+4000) – Made the cut in eight of nine prior events, with two top-15 finishes and a top five.
Travelers Championship
The negative this week is it is another signature event. However, we are coming off a 6.25 unit victory at the U.S. Open so we can be a little more aggressive, and the sports books have been quite generous with some of the numbers this week. This is easily one of my favorite tournaments of the year, and I love this golf course. A lot of risk/reward holes come into play and the final stretch of holes can really lead to an exciting finish. As it has been, and will be for the foreseeable future, Scottie Scheffler once again leads the odds board this week in the +400 range. He has an uncanny ability right now to post great finishes and not quite get the job done. Scheffler is winless in 12 starts, (which is absurd to even be talking about in a somewhat negative fashion) so it’s impossible to back him at +400 right now. There will be a time and place that we go against Scheffler at a small number and he wins, and that could absolutely happen this week. But I just can’t back him at that small of a price right now. Nonetheless, he has finished in the top 10 here in three straight trips. TPC River Highlands is a course that does not require a lot of length to be effective and can be compared to Sedgefield Country Club and TPC Sawgrass. With Scheffler at an unplayable price, Cameron Young starting to cool off a bit, and perennial bridesmaid Tommy Fleetwood at the top of the odds board, let’s get into this week’s picks.
THE BETTING CARD
LUDVIG ABERG (+2200), .2 UNITS TO WIN 4.4 UNITS – I can’t believe this guy found his way back to my betting card, but 22/1 is just too good to pass up, given the fact we can hedge late in the tournament. This doesn’t change the fact I don’t trust him late in tournaments, but everyone has a price, and this one I can accept. At the end of the day, Aberg’s skill set is nearly unmatched on the PGA Tour and he is going to keep putting himself in contention week in and week out.
SI-WOO KIM (+2500), .15 UNITS TO WIN 3.75 UNITS– I found Kim quite interesting this week. He has had a fantastic year, and this golf course should perfectly fit his profile. The downside is, in two trips here, Kim hasn’t really done much, he has missed the cut once and finished tied for 31st the other time. However, the uplifting part is what Kim has done in the follow up to both majors this season. After The Masters, Kim finished third in Hilton Head. After the PGA Championship, Kim posted a strong second-place finish at the Byron Nelson. If the trend continues, he will finish first this week.
COLLIN MORIKAWA (+3000) .15 UNITS TO WIN 4.5 UNITS – Another player that has underperformed at TPC River Highlands, but Morikawa continues to play some fantastic golf and this number again just seems a little too high. While Morikawa’s last three finishes have all been outside the top 15, he has quietly gained a lot of strokes putting. When he is putting well, he can pop off a win at anytime.
JUSTIN THOMAS (+3300), .175 UNITS TO WIN 5.77 UNITS– Now we get to the course horses. Thomas absolutely loves this golf course and has finished in the top 10 in three straight trips. Add to that, he has six straight top 25 finishes coming to River Highlands. Thomas struggled a little bit with the driver last week, but it has been good overall during this run of top 25s. If he is able to gain strokes off the tee this week, the rest of his game is in good shape and I think he will be at or near the top.
RUSSELL HENLEY (+4600), .125 UNITS TO WIN 5.75 UNITS– I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw the 46/1 on Henley. Henley was uninspiring at the U.S. Open, playing two pretty bad rounds on the weekend and fading to a tie for 65th. The last time he played bad in a major was this year’s PGA Championship and he turned around and won the very next event in which he played. Henley has five career top 20s in eight trips to River Highlands and finished tied for second last year. It’s a golf course that sets up very nicely for him and I fully expect a bounce back from the U.S. Open. At these odds, he is an automatic play.
SAHITH THEEGALA (+6900), .075 UNITS TO WIN 5.17 UNITS – Another incredibly generous number for the guy who finished runner up here to Xander Schauffele three years ago. Theegala comes to Connecticut off arguably his best week of the season at the U.S. Open (he was top five in the field tee to green all week). An uncharacteristically cold putter held Theegala back from winning last week, but the rest of his game is in great shape and if the good tee shots continue, Theegala will absolutely contend this week at a high number.
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (+8600), .0625 UNITS TO WIN 5.37 UNITS – This number is just outright disrespectful for a player that generally has pretty good win equity even when he isn’t 86/1. In three trips to River Highlands, Matsuyama has never finished outside the top 30. The driver is what is holding Matsuyama back, but the overall approach numbers and short game numbers are still pretty good for him. It was only four months ago that Matsuyama finished in the top 20 in nine straight tournaments and got a trophy. I’ll take my chances every time at 86/1 on him.
BRIAN HARMAN (+9200), .0625 UNITS TO WIN 5.75 UNITS – Last player on the card and another one I had to do a double take on when I saw the odds this week. Harman is the biggest horse for course at TPC River Highlands as he has finished in the top 10 seven times in the last 8 trips here. You have to think he can finish one of these off, and why not this year? The approach numbers have dipped his last two events, but he gained strokes on approach in nine straight events prior to that. If he can get back to those numbers, 92/1 is incredible value.
SKIP THE STARBUCKS LONGSHOT PICKS
- DANIEL BERGER 145/1
- TOM HOGE 600/1
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