By J.T. CHADWELL
First round leader markets are entertaining and very different from handicapping an outright winner. Similarly, we want to look at past first round leaders and their odds to get an idea of the type of player that typically gets off to a hot start here. In general, we want to look for players who are maybe hitting the ball well, but struggling with the putter in hopes the putter can get hot for one round. Another very important factor when handicapping first round leaders is the weather forecast. With tee times spread out through the entirety of the day, sometimes early or later tee times can have a massive advantage over the other. Currently, weather for Thursday at Augusta National does not look to be a big issue, as the forecast is calling for steady 8-10 mph wind throughout the day with gusts up to 20 mph. The wind will be blowing to the northeast, which is a very tough wind at Augusta National. Most holes will be playing with a cross wind, while holes 10, 11, and 12 will all be playing into the wind. This will also be key when searching for a first round leader, as length and short game will now be put at a premium for the day, along with bogey avoidance.
Without further ado, let’s look at some past first round leaders of The Masters.
PAST FIRST ROUND LEADERS
2025, JUSTIN ROSE – Rose had gained strokes putting in six straight events, and gained strokes on approach in 4 straight events before leading the first round.
2024, BRYSON DECHAMBEAU – Similar to Rose, Bryson had gained strokes putting in five straight events, but on approach only gained in three of five before leading after day one at Augusta.
2023, JON RAHM / BROOKS KOEPKA / VIKTOR HOVLAND – 2023 saw 3 players share the first round lead. Koepka was playing on the LIV tour and no shot tracking data was available. Rahm gained strokes putting in five of his six prior events, and the same for approach. Hovland gained strokes putting in four of his seven most recent events, and gained strokes approach in all seven.
2022, SUNGJAE IM – Im played in eight events prior to The Masters. He gained strokes putting in five of those and gained strokes on approach in four of them.
2021, JUSTIN ROSE – Rose played in four events leading up to The Masters and gained strokes putting in three of four events and had the same success rate with approach.
FIRST ROUND LEADER BETTING SELECTIONS
As we look at the previous first round leaders of the last five editions of The Masters, it was pretty clear you need to be putting well, and hitting irons well to have the first round spike needed to jolt to the top of the leaderboard. Here are our first round leader selections for 2026:
- LUDVIG ABERG, 25/1 – Aberg loves Augusta and I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if he finds himself at the top of the leaderboard, not only at the end of Thursday, but near the end of Sunday as well. The question will be if he can handle the pressure on Sunday afternoon if he is in the position to take the green jacket after his complete debacle in the last round of The Players Championship.
- CAMERON YOUNG, 30/1- This guy is going to win a major and probably has more ability to shoot a very low score in one round than anyone in this tournament. His game seems to be in the best shape it’s ever been and he’s no stranger to finding the top of leaderboards in majors early in the week. He led after the first round at the 2022 British Open at St. Andrews.
- JORDAN SPIETH, 39/1 – Augusta is Spieth’s best course. He has six top-five finishes and a win here. How do you do that? You put yourself at the top of the leaderboard early. His game is finally on an upward trend after a couple down years. Plus, Spieth has gained on approach in four straight events, and gained in putting in four of his last five.
- MIN WOO LEE, 47/1 – I just really love Min Woo this week in all formats. He is no stranger to first round leads, and is quietly playing top 5 golf in the world right now. He hasn’t finished outside the top 40 yet this season and has gained five strokes total to the field in every event. In four trips here his short game hasn’t been as elite as it can be, but he has still gained more than he has lost in putting and around the greens.
- AKSHAY BHATIA, 51/1- This number is higher than I thought it would be. In two trips to Augusta his short game there has been nothing short of phenomenal, gaining almost eight shots to the field combined in putting and around the greens. You could argue his short game is in even a better place now, and his ball striking is for sure.
- NICOLAI HOJGAARD, 57/1 – Hojgaard tied for third on Thursday here two years ago, but the more striking stat is what he has been doing recently on approach and on the greens. He has gained in every event he has played this season in both en route to four top 10 finishes.