By J.T. CHADWELL
Last week: 3-2, won the Sicko Special
Overall: 11-9, 1-0 Sicko Special
RECAP
Winners on the week included Penn State, but it was more of an indictment on how bad Buffalo is. Buffalo is now 0-3 against the spread this season and things will continue to get worse. Jacksonville State rebounded from last week’s tough defeat with a nice comeback against Georgia Southern. UTSA only managed six points against Texas, but Texas was exactly what we thought: conservative, a little less focused than usual, and just trying to run the clock out and travel to Knoxville. The Alabama loss stung a little bit, and if you had told me the Crimson Tide were going to score 50 points I would make that bet 10 out of 10 times. We now head to Week 4, which will be highlighted by a game we will be avoiding at all costs: Texas A&M vs. LSU. Considering both teams already have one loss, this is a massive game this early in the season for both and somewhat impatient fan bases.
Let’s look at the picks. All times are Eastern.
Florida (-1.5) vs. Ole Miss (3:30 PM, ABC)
Aaaaahhhh, the old “what does Vegas know that I don’t” game. Surely the No. team in the country shouldn’t be an underdog to a team finding the top 25 rankings for the first time this late in the season since 2021 … should it? For one game, and with all parts equal, probably not. But this game is far from that. Ole Miss comes off one of the highest emotion regular season games of its existence beating LSU and Lane Kiffin after Kiffin bolted for Baton Rouge back in December. The Rebels poured everything they had into the game last week, and how are they rewarded? A road trip to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, which is hard enough to play in when Ron Zook or Jim McElwain is coaching. Jon Sumrall, through three games, looks like a major upgrade over Florida’s flop coaches from the past. The Gators are running hot right now and while the final score in Auburn was only a five-point margin, Florida made pretty easy work of the Tigers in that game. We are throwing data and stats out the window and banking on Vegas getting the favorite right in this game, something they are pretty darn good at doing.
Vanderbilt (+10.5) @ Auburn (4:15 PM, SEC Network)
Too many points here. In one of our preseason Friday 5 pieces, we highlighted the success of Vanderbilt and Arkansas as road underogs in conference, and it’s because of spreads like this. The Commodores are a cut below what they were last year, but Alex Golesh and the Auburn Tigers have not lived up to expectations since he took over. It’s been difficult for a much larger part of the season for the Tigers than not. It took Clark Lea a few years to get this Vanderbilt team where he wanted it, but since the start of 2024 the Commodores have only lost two games by more than 10 points. They seem to always find themselves in the midst of a close game late, and like UTSA last week, they have an offense good enough to get a late touchdown if they’re down 17 to get a back door cover.
Sam Houston (+35.5) @ Texas Tech (Noon, TNT/HBO Max)
Last year’s spread darling gets a home matchup against this year’s spread darling. Through three games Sam Houston ranks number one in FBS against the spread: 3-0 with an average cover margin of 19 points. Last season, Texas Tech was one of the absolute best against the spread, but this season it’s tailed off a bit early and the number one reason for that? The defense isn’t near the level it was last year. Cue the matchup advantage for Sam Houston here. The Bearkats this season are top 15 in FBS in pass play percentage (7th), and pass yards per game (11th). Texas Tech ranks 133rd in pass yards given up per game, 92nd in completion percentage allowed, and the Red Raiders have yet to stop a team in the red zone. Texas Tech will win this game, but 35 points seems like way too many to give this offense against this defense.
Iowa (+5.5) @ Michigan (3:30 PM, CBS/Paramount+)
The only thing stopping this game’s over/under being in the 20s is the fact it’s being played in early September and not late November. And that’s the first thing going for Iowa. The total is sitting at 37.5 right now, so there are not going to be points scored in this game. These are two very good run defenses with far from explosive offenses (oddly enough Iowa’s has looked better to this point in the season). But, Michigan has been playing with fire most of the season after six lackluster quarters against Western Michigan and UTEP. While Iowa hasn’t played the stiffest of competition, the Hawkeyes have still scored 40 points twice, something that has only happened one other time since 2018. The kicker here is the splits are in our favor. Since 2020, Iowa is the number one road team in the FBS against the spread with a record of 19-8-1. The Hawkeyes are ninth overall against the spread in conference games since 2020 with a record of 32-20-3. This feels like a one possession game the whole way, so let’s just hope Michigan wins it by less than six.
Oregon @ USC (OVER 62.5) (7:30 PM, NBC/Peacock)
Probably a very popular pick this week, but way too much going in favor of the over here, and Oregon defense has some serious issues that are not going to get fixed in a road trip to USC. USC in home games since 2020 is 26-14 to the over and just gave up 35 to Rutgers and 30 to Louisiana. The total here opened at 60.5 and moved to 62.5 pretty quickly. Since 2023 the over hits at a 57% rate in situations where the total moves two or more points to the over. Seven of the last 10 head to heads in this series have also hit the over. It’s going to be prime time and Dante Moore is going to have to step up and score points if Oregon doesn’t want its season to tailspin.
SICKO SPECIAL
Hawaii Team Total (UNDER 24.5) at Wyoming (3 PM, CW)
This week’s sicko special heads out west for a 1 PM time kickoff, which is far from good for the Rainbow Warriors (this is 9 am local time for them). A lot of things going against Hawaii here. First off, the Warriors are 12-21 against the spread on the road since 2020. Second off, this game total opened at 50.5 and dropped like a rock, as it now sits at 44.5. The final nail in the coffin? Both Hawaii and Wyoming since 2020 are in the top 10 in the FBS in records to the under in conference games (Wyoming is 27-18 to the under and Hawaii s 29-19).
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