By J.T. CHADWELL
BRAZIL VS JAPAN
Both teams come to the knockout stage having done pretty much exactly what they needed to do to advance this far, and not a whole lot more. Brazil drew against Morocco, the tough team in its group and won the goal differential against the weaker teams. Japan can give some of the giants fits with its playing style, speed, and organization. I do not think that will be the case for Brazil. Brazil will be without Raphinha, but Vinicius Junior played excellent in the group stage and Brazil’s midfield should be able to control the pace here.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Brazil to qualify for the next round (-320)
- Average risk parlay: Brazil moneyline AND Vinicious Junior 1+ shot on goal (+112)
- High risk play: Brazil win 1-0 or 2-0 (+240)
GERMANY VS PARAGUAY
A miraculous second half of defending against Turkiye put Paraguay through to the knockout stage where they will face the blue blood Germany. The Germans looked better than expected throughout the group stage before conceding a late goal to Ecuador to lose 2-1. That result didn’t matter, but could it halt some of the momentum the Germans had built up from the first 2 matches?
- Low risk parlay toss ins: Germany to score AND Paraguay under 1.5 team goals AND Germany race to 3 corners (-320)
- Average risk parlay: Germany moneyline AND Jamal Musiala to score or assist (+128)
- High risk play: Germany to win 2-0 or 2-1 (+250)
NETHERLANDS VS MOROCCO
Rough draw for these two teams, which are both ranked inside the FIFA world ranking top 10. I think this game will probably be a very typical knockout stage battle, with both teams trying to come into the match the first 30 minutes. If both are still tied at the second half hydration break, I don’t think you will see many risks being taken. I think this one probably goes to extra time, if not penalties.
- Low risk parlay toss ins: Morocco +1.5 AND under 4.5 goals (-475)
- Average risk parlay: 1st half under 1.5 goals AND game under 2.5 goals (-130)
- High risk play: 3 way moneyline DRAW (+210)
Record
Low risk: 57-16
Average risk: 35-38 (minus 3.7 units)
High risk: 20-52 (up 0.35 units)
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