By J.T. CHADWELL
Three more groups wrap up play today. Which ones move on to the knockout stage?
CURACAO VS IVORY COAST
Ivory Coast comes into this one very comfortable and more than likely already has enough points to advance. Luckily, Les Elephants can be comfortable against Curacao, the worst team in the entire field. Ivory Coast should have no problems in this one even if it rests most of its top players.
- Low risk parlay toss ins: Over 1.5 total goals AND Curacao under 1.5 team goals (-525)
- Average risk parlay: Ivory Coast win AND under 3.5 total goals (+100)
- High risk play: Ivory Coast to win 2-0 or 3-0 (+200)
GERMANY VS ECUADOR
Germany has already won this group and has no incentive to do anything here. A win keeps Ecuador alive, but a draw likely sends this side home. Germany’s backups and lesser important players are still a class above what this Ecuador team has looked like to this point. Tough match to read here, as if Ecuador sacrifices defense to throw more towards the attack, the Germans can get a few goals even if they’re not playing their hardest. Or, does Ecuador defend first and try and throw more towards an attack late?
- Low risk parlay toss in: Under 4.5 total goals (-650)
- Average risk parlay: Ecuador under 1.5 team total goals AND over 7.5 game corners AND under 1.5 total 1st half goals (+120)
- High risk play: 3 way moneyline DRAW (+320)
TUNISIA VS NETHERLANDS
Poor Tunisia. Though not the worst team in the field, Tunisia sure has looked like it, yielding nine goals through its first two fixtures. Now here comes a motivated Netherlands team, which still needs three points to secure the group. There’s not really much to dissect here as Netherlands should be able to name its score.
One important note on the high risk parlay here: be sure and check the Netherlands lineup to see if Brian Brobbey or Donyell Malen starts.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Netherlands over 1.5 team total goals (-475)
- Average risk parlay: Netherlands over 2.5 team total goals AND Cody Gakpo to score or assist (-105)
- High risk parlay: Netherlands over 3.5 team total goals AND Brobbey or Malen to score AND Gakpo to score or assist (+320)
JAPAN VS SWEDEN
Japan has looked really good in its two games, and has a slim chance to win the group on goal differential with a victory here. Sweden likely just needs a draw to feel secure in grabbing at least a third-place berth in the knockout bracket. With Japan’s chances resting on scoring lots of goals and Sweden fully secure with a draw, I don’t expect many fireworks in this one.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Japan double chance (-450)
- Average risk play: Total goals under 2.5 (+105)
- High risk play: 3 way moneyline DRAW (+255)
USA VS TURKIYE
Another game that means absolutely nothing for both sides. Main question here, does Turkiye come out and play for pride? I feel Team USA will more than likely rest starters, but I would still expect high energy effort from Poch’s side. Volatile match here, but we will do our best.
- Low risk parlay toss ins: USA to score AND Turkiye under 2.5 team total goals (-550)
- Average risk parlay: Both Teams to score YES AND USA under 3.5 team total AND Turkiye under 2.5 team total (-120)
- High risk play: USA to win 2-1 or a 1-1 draw (+295)
AUSTRALIA VS PARAGUAY
Our first match that exposes the flaw of the new 48-team World Cup format. Neither one of these teams has any incentive whatsoever to get any other result than a draw, which should put them both in the knockout stage. These teams are pretty evenly matched and would play to a draw a decent percentage of the time anyways. I can’t imagine very much goes on in this match. The question is whether it finishes 0-0 or 1-1.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Under 2.5 total goals (-265)
- Average risk play: 3 way moneyline DRAW (+125)
- High risk play: Correct score 1-1 (+370)
Results
Low risk: 43-11
Average risk: 26-28
High risk: 14-39-1
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