By J.T. CHADWELL
RECORD
Last week: 5-1 (lost Sicko Special)
Overall: 32-18 (4-2 Sicko Special)
RECAP
We got back in the winner’s circle in a big way going 5-0 in our regular picks for the second time this season, but this time we were unable to finish the cherry on top and lost the Sicko Special. One of the best feelings in sports betting is trusting your instincts when lots of public money and media attention is latching onto a popular underdog. Auburn took lots of money during the week and was mentioned multiple times throughout the week as a potential upset over LSU. Auburn’s win over Georgia was always a fluke, and LSU proved that with a complete beatdown of the Tigers. What a matchup the LSU/Texas game is going to be here in a couple weeks, but I’m not sure at this point a third loss will disqualify either from playoff contention. Speaking of playoff contention, Tennessee’s playoff chances took a massive hit with a tough loss at South Carolina this weekend. The Vols could not finish off the Gamecocks after a late turnover gave South Carolina the ball in plus field territory which eventually led to a game winning field goal as time expired. Tennessee must now run the table to probably have any chance at making the playoff, but if nothing else could have the chance to ruin Lane Kiffin’s playoff hopes on November 21st.
Until then, let’s keep churning out winning picks. All times Eastern.
Missouri (-9.5) @ Arkansas (7:45 PM, SEC Network)
In the preseason we talked about how the worst teams in the Southeastern Conference are actually pretty good against the spread, because a lot of times they are given large amounts of points against the top teams. But, the SEC isn’t a one-size-fits-all league, and I think we’ve found a nice spot here for Missouri. I think we get a deflated line after Ole Miss completely defeated the Tigers a couple weeks ago. But now Missouri has an extra week of rest for one of the easiest road games in the conference. Missouri is one of the best teams in the country over the last five years against the spread following a loss, boasting a 12-4 record. Now the Tigers draw a very bad Arkansas team and are favored on the road, where Mizzou is 7-0 against the spread as an away favorite over the last five years. The fact this spread is (barely) single digits makes this our first pick of the week.
Boise State (-11.5) vs. Texas State (10 PM, CW)
Going to one of the best home teams in college football here. Boise State is 19-9-1 against the spread at home over the last five seasons, and I think the Broncos catch Texas State in a nice matchup here. The Bobcats come in off an incredibly soft schedule (their last the against San Diego State, Colorado State, and Utah State). Meanwhile, the Broncos have to really feel like they are in contention for a playoff spot this year and shouldn’t be fooling around with their easier matchups. Boise State has only scored less than 30 one time this season and that was against Oregon and Boise still got to 27. If 34 is the average for the Broncos, that means they only need to hold Texas State under 23. I will take that chance.
Mississippi State (+21.5) @ Texas (7:30, ESPN)
Look, Kamario Taylor is now out for the season, and if you want to sit this one out because of that, no shame in it. But, this year in the SEC I would be keen on taking any of the bad teams against any of the good teams with 21.5 points. This is the final matchup in what’s been a gauntlet of a schedule for the Bulldogs, and regardless of their roster and talent level, they always play hard for Jeff Lebby. Now they draw a Texas team that has back to back massive matchups in the playoff landscape after this. The offense looked a little better last week, but the ceiling for Texas looks to be 31-34 points right now, meaning a couple touchdowns from Mississippi State can cover this number. This is a terrible spot for Texas coming off a huge win against Ole Miss and those games against Missouri and LSU on deck. Give me the Bulldogs with the points.
Michigan @ Rutgers OVER 46.5 (12:30, Big Ten Network)
Rutgers home overs are on auto bet until further notice. It’s the most profitable angle in college football right now, and we only need 47 points to hit this one. The Wolverines have been through it offensively, and have had to do it against some very stout defenses (Iowa, Indiana, Penn State, and Oklahoma). Now the new look offense gets its chance to spread its wings against a very poor Rutgers defense. Finally, the key matchup here is Rutgers’ inability to stop big plays in the run game. Rutgers gives up 6 yards per carry which is near the very bottom of the FBS statistically. If Michigan can hit some big plays in the run game I love the chances of getting to 47 this week.
Tulane (-9.5) @ Charlotte (Friday, 7 PM, ESPN2)
We are laying quite a few points this week, but it’s just another spot we can’t afford to overlook. Tulane is 13-5 against the spread over the last five seasons when favored on the road. The Green Wave come into this one off a pretty bad beatdown by UTSA, but the Roadrunners are quality, so this line maybe gets a tad deflated because of it. Charlotte on the other hand, is 3-15 at home as an underdog over the last five seasons, and is coming off a surprising win, so maybe another reason why this number is a tad small. This Charlotte team is bad, and the only two categories on offense or defense they are statistically ranked inside the top 100 are completion percentage (50th) and rush yards given up per play (90th). That isn’t getting the job done Saturday. Green Wave by double digits.
Sicko Special
UAB (Team Total UNDER 16.5) @ USF (Noon, ESPNU)
Lots to like about this one. UAB heads to South Florida following a win where UAB is 2-15-2 against the spread following a win over the last five years. South Florida is favored by 8.5 in this one and for me that line is just a tad too much for a Bulls offense that lacks firepower. So, the pivot here is to UAB’s team total under. South Florida has given up 17 or less in five of seven games this season with the only two teams scoring more than that Army and UTSA, both of which have really good offenses in that conference. UAB on the other hand, has only scored 30 against an FBS opponent once this season, so their offense also lacks firepower. The key for South Florida’s defense will be getting ahead early. UAB has one of the worst offenses in FBS, while South Florida boasts a top 20 passing defense.
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