By J.T. CHADWELL
It’s the next-to-last day of the group stage and, if not for Japan’s late goal against the Netherlands and Turkiye’s tally during stoppage time against the USA last night, we would be in the money for both average and high-risk plays. Today, we fight on for another day. Our overall results have been pretty strong if you toss the first eight games of the tournament.
FRANCE VS NORWAY
Both teams enter with six points, so the winner here takes the group. Norway has been everything a lot of people thought it would be and more on the attacking side in its first two matches. Norway is headed to the knockout stage regardless of the result here, so the question is how much do the Vikings press to try and knock off the tournament favorite and try to grab the top spot? (Editor’s note: I hope the Norwegians stick around as long as they can so they keep crashing other sporting events with this kind of energy.)
- Low risk parlay toss in: France double chance (-550)
- Average risk parlay: Both teams to score AND France to win either half (+102)
- High risk play: France to win either 2-1 or 3-1 (+380)
SENEGAL VS IRAQ
One of the top African contingents coming in, Senegal now faces both a must-win match and the pressure to score as many goals as it can to have a chance to advance to the knockout stage. Luckily Senegal draws Iraq, the weakest team in what has been a strong group.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Senegal moneyline (-450)
- Average risk parlay: Senegal -1.5 goals AND Ismaila Sarr 2+ attempted shots (-110)
- High risk parlay: Senegal over 2.5 team goals AND Nicolas Jackson to score or assist AND Sadio Mane to score or assist AND Sarr 3+ attempted shots (+425)
URUGUAY VS SPAIN
I don’t think many people saw Uruguay going home after the group stage but the danger is real after two matches, even though neither was a loss. Uruguay finds itself in the worst of spots, needing at least a point to keep its hopes alive against Spain, which also would prefer three points from this match. Uruguay has not looked good at this Cup and, similar to golf, you’re not going to magically find your form in the toughest of conditions.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Uruguay team total under 1.5 goals (-575)
- Average risk parlay: Spain moneyline AND Uruguay under 1.5 team goals AND over 7.5 corners (-110)
- High risk play: Spain to win 1-0 or 2-0 (+235)
CAPE VERDE VS SAUDI ARABIA
Holy smokes! What a tournament it’s been for Cape Verde and now it has a chance to not only advance to the knockout stage, but win this group. While winning this group is unlikely, advancing to the round of 32 looks very possible for the Cinderella of this World Cup. A draw and a Spain win still would see Cape Verde through to the knockout bracket. Saudi Arabia is, overall, still probably the more quality side, but Cape Verde has been installed as the favorite.
- Low risk parlay toss ins: Saudi Arabia +1.5 goals AND under 4.5 (-500)
- Average risk parlay: Saudi Arabia +1.5 goals AND Both teams to score YES (-110)
- High risk parlay: Saudi Arabia moneyline AND Both teams to score YES (+475)
NEW ZEALAND VS BELGIUM
Look, New Zealand is way overmatched here, and Belgium absolutely has to have this result to avoid complete disaster. But, it is hard to back Belgium in any way, shape, or form, given the way the Red Devils have played their first two games. New Zealand will play hard and give the effort. I am not sold Belgium will do the same.
- Low risk parlay toss ins: Belgium under 4.5 team goals AND Belgium race to 5 corners (-285)
- Average risk parlay: New Zealand +3.5 AND Jeremy Doku 2+ attempted shots AND Belgium race to 5 corners (-140)
- High risk play: Belgium to win 2-0 or 3-0 (+240)
EGYPT VS IRAN
How does Iran feel about its chances at three points from the group with a zero-goal differential? The percentages would tell you it’s higher than 50%, which means this game likely ends in a draw. Will Iran press and try and steal second or even first place from Egypt? We will see. South Africa did it to South Korea.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Both teams to score and no draw (-400)
- Average risk play: 3 way moneyline DRAW (+165)
- High risk play: Correct Score 1-1 Draw (+425)