By J.T. CHADWELL
Record
Last week: 3-2
Overall: 6-4
Recap
Two weeks in and two profitable weeks to start the 2026 season. Not really any sweating to be done during Week 1. Toledo and Boise State almost won outright as double-digit underdogs and LSU had the points covered midway through the second quarter.
Let’s look for a third straight week with a winning record.
All times are Eastern.
Georgia Southern (+21.5) @ Clemson (7:30, ACC Network)
More than happy to fade the Tigers again in this spot. Clemson is a young inexperienced team that looked like it has a massive talent gap from the elite teams in college football. Judging by their opening game, the Tigers have a long way to go and a lot to work on, and it’s going to take more than seven days. And sticking with the theme of last week, Georgia Southern gets more than 20 points here, taking as much of a veteran QB as you can get in college football on the road (Max Johnson), with a decent run game and a capable head coach in Clay Helton. Throw in the fact Clemson is 4-13 against the spread when favored by 20 points or more at home under Dabo Swinney and I think the Eagles can keep this one somewhat close.
Oregon (-22.5) @ Oklahoma State (Noon, ESPN)
Oklahoma State had to be one of the more disappointing teams of the opening week of the season, losing by two touchdowns to Tulsa and former ETSU coach Tre Lamb, and things don’t get easier this week. Leaning on a bit of common sense here. Boise State was catching 24 and gave Oregon a very stern test, but not because Oregon played bad. Now we get this same Oregon team, laying fewer points, against a team that looked completely out of sorts last week. The other concerning factor for Oklahoma State is the Cowboys only averaged 3.4 yards a carry against Tulsa, and this Oregon run defense is much better. If OSU becomes one dimensional early, the Oregon defenders can pin their ears back and rush the QB all day long. On the flip side, Oklahoma State was unable to get to Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes all game, failing to record a sack. If Dante Moore has that much time on Saturday he will be slinging the ball all over the field. The icing on the cake: Oregon is 18-10 on the road against the spread since 2020.
UConn (+12.5) vs. Maryland (3:30, CBS Sports Network)
UConn was one of my favorite teams last year against the spread, but as with many teams this season, the Huskies had lots of roster and coach turnover. Even though the first game against Lafayette doesn’t tell us much, they still scored 56 points, so the offense looks like it’s picking up where it left off. Home field advantage will also be key for the Huskies here, they are 21-10 since 2020 at home against the spread while Maryland is 11-16 on the road. Maryland brought back Mike Locksley as the coach after an underwhelming 4-8 season. This feels more like a one-possession game, so I like the Huskies getting the 12.5.
FIU (-9.5) vs. Buffalo (6 PM, ESPN+)
A bit of an obscure game in the college football landscape Saturday, but we will take a mismatch when we get one. Buffalo is terrible this season, and if not for a late failure to execute on the goal line by unranked FCS team Albany, the Bulls would be 0-1. FIU started the season with a competitive loss to South Florida, but dominated the Bulls on the field outgaining them 381 to 208. FIU had three turnovers that crushed its chances, and failed to create any turnovers. I look for a nice bounceback here from the Panthers against one of the worst teams in the FBS.
(Over 57.5) Pittsburgh vs. UCF (3:30, ESPN2)
I originally leaned Pittsburgh minus the points, but the more I dug into this game, the better the over looked. For starters, both teams scored over 55 points to start the season, albeit against very inferior opponents. I really wanted to fade Scott Frost in this spot, and the reason UCF has been poor on the road is because of defense. Since 2020, the over is 21-11 in UCF road games, and this is not an easy spot. Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi has a wonderful offensive mindset, and as a matter of fact, has the sixth best cover rate to the over as a home favorite since 2020 at 19-9-2 (67%). Pitt QB Mason Heintschel had a fantastic freshman season, and heads the Panthers attack again, so I like the stability he and Narduzzi offer in this matchup.
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