By J.T. CHADWELL
RECAP
For the second week in a row we went into Sunday’s round with a big chance, but unfortunately it ended poorly this time. After tipping Michael Brennan for the Rocket Classic, we missed on him at the Wyndham. Brennan slammed the door shut on everyone with five straight birdies on the front nine Sunday, grabbing a lead that in the end would be insurmountable. For the third straight week, an American player under the age of 25 impresses and takes another trophy. This is now Brennan’s second win in 2026 on the PGA Tour after also taking down the Bank of Utah Championship at Black Desert Resort. Brennan is quickly becoming one of the best (if not the best already) overall drivers of the golf ball on the tour. The rest of his game can be inconsistent at times, but this weekend was the second time in less than a year he has proven that when it’s all working, he is a top player in this game. Now that the regular season has come to an end, it’s time to settle the year-long FedEx Cup Champion, and it will start in our home state of Tennessee (albeit almost eight hours from home) in Memphis at TPC Southwind.
Past Fedex St. Jude Championship Winners, Odds, And Trends
- 2025, Justin Rose (80/1) – Made six cuts with two top-10 finishes in 10 events prior.
- 2024, Hideki Matsuyama (30/1) – Made the cut nine times with five top 10s in his 10 previous events.
- 2023, Lucas Glover (80/1) – Made six cuts, finished in the top 10 three times, and scored a win in his 10 prior events.
- 2022, Will Zalatoris (25/1) – Made seven cuts and had four top-10 finishes in his 10 prior events.
- 2021, Abraham Ancer (40/1 – Made the cut eight times with three top-10s in 10 events prior.
FedEx St. Jude Championship
The opening round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs will be contested at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. This course has been a staple on the PGA Tour for a while, but didn’t start drawing a high-level field until four years ago when it was added to the FedEx Playoff. Only 70 players will tee it up this week, and the top 50 will move on to St. Louis next week for the second round of the playoffs, the BMW Championship. Scottie Scheffler (+450) and Rory McIlroy (+950) will both be in attendance this week and lead the odds board. McIlroy has lost strokes on approach in his last three tournaments and only has one top-five finish in Memphis since 2019, so he will be an easy toss for me. For Scheffler, it’s same song, different verse this week. He is rightfully the favorite here, and has finished in the top five at Southwind in back-to-back years. He finished last season strong, with five top-five finishes in his final seven events, but did not win any of them. He has been trending as a bridesmaid most of the season, so at +450, I am going to have to see him hold a trophy before taking a low price on him again. TPC Southwind is very similar to Sedgefield Country Club, last week’s host. Accuracy off the tee and precision with iron play between 125 and 200 yards will be at a premium. There are some horse-for-course players who are in great form that we will highlight on this week’s betting card as well.
The Betting Card
- Xander Schauffele (19.5/1) .22 units to win 4.62 units – We start this week’s card with Mr. Consistency. Schauffele has missed nine cuts, total, in his last eight years on the tour. Schauffele has posted a top 25 finish here in three straight tries and comes to Memphis on the heels of a runner-up finish in Detroit at the Rocket Classic. All year long, Schauffele has posted good finishes while struggling with one part of his game. The full arsenal looks to be there for Schauffele right now and I expect him to contend for a win in one of these playoff tournaments. Why not the first one?
- Sam Burns (20/1) .2 units to win 4.62 units – Look, Burns clearly struggles to close out on Sundays, but he is playing way too good right now and he gets a course he clearly loves, for him to be at these odds. Burns comes to Southwind running a streak of five straight top-20 finishes and three of those were inside the top five. Two of his last five tries here have also been top-five finishes. Let’s hope Burns enters Sunday one or two back instead of one or two ahead.
- Hideki Matsuyama (33/1) .15 units to win 5.1 units – Back to the well this week for the guy who won here two years ago. Love this price for a guy who, once he gets going, can put together a win. Matsuyama has three straight top 10s this season and five straight top 20s at this event with a win in 2024 and a tie for second in 2021. Last week Sedgefield oddly favored longer hitters (that never happens), or else Matsuyama probably would’ve hoisted a trophy. The game changer for him is the accuracy off the tee. He has been positive in adjusted driving accuracy in five straight tournaments and it has paid back five straight top-15 finishes.
- Si Woo Kim (33/1) .14 units to win 4.75 units – More of a course fit than horse for course here, but Si Woo comes to Southwind playing arguably the best golf of his life. The formula for Kim is simple. Gain strokes putting and he is almost guaranteed to be in the top 5 percent of the leaderboard. At 33/1, I will take his ball striking form and hope the putter cooperates.
- Russell Henley (40/1) .12 units to win 4.9 units – Henley is running on one of the hottest putting streaks of his career. He is gaining nearly 3.75 strokes per tournament with his putter over the last six events, and it’s led to a win and four top-20 finishes. Another course fit play here, at a course where distance isn’t needed. Henley oddly has lost strokes around the greens in five of the last six events, and he is a fantastic short game player. If he can buck that trend, he should be near the top on Sunday.
- Tom Kim (55/1) .1 units to win 5.5 units – Another player we turn right back to for the same reasons as last week. Kim’s approach numbers are gaudy right now, and almost no one on Tour can match them. The course looks to be a fit and the odds are higher than they should be. Sign me up again.
- Alex Fitzpatrick (98/1) .05 units to win 4.95 units – Not my favorite player and his putter is ice cold right now, but, everything else in Fitzpatrick’s isn’t, and all it takes is one good week with a putter. This number is too high and should be more in the 50-60 range, so we’ll take a stab.
Skip The Starbucks Longshots
- Max Homa 145/1
- Sepp Straka 300/1