By J.T. CHADWELL
And then there were 16.
The World Cup knockout stage is heating up, and we’re on a hot streak on high risk plays that has us 10.2 units up in that category, fueling a plus 8.7 margin overall.
Plenty of room on this train. Let’s keep it rolling today.
CANADA VS MOROCCO
Things are finally getting serious, and we start the round of 16 with what most matches this late in the competition become: a defensive struggle. This doesn’t seem like a match where Canada is going to want a lot of possession. The Canadians tend to make errors in the midfield and Morocco can hit quickly on the counter. Canada wants this game 0-0 as soon long as possible. The more Canada needs to press, the more likely it falls behind 2-0. Morocco is the better side, but will the home field advantage swing this match in the Canadians’ favor? We will see.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Under 3.5 goals (-450)
- Average risk parlay: Under 1.5 1st half goals AND under 2.5 game goals AND under 12.5 corners (+100)
- High risk play: Morocco to win 1-0 or 1-1 draw (+200)
FRANCE VS PARAGUAY
I think most thought France would be seeing Germany in this spot, but now Les Bleus gets their chance to buck the trend of this competition. To this point, France has been unstoppable and looks like the inevitable winner of this tournament. But, time and time again, we have seen the strong defensive South American and African sides give the UEFA teams trouble. France has been installed as a regular time -550 moneyline favorite and the world will all be betting on the French in this match. Paraguay lost its opener to the USA 5-1 while France has essentially been flawless. France has plenty enough to see its way through in this match, but I think the value is on the underdog side here.
- Low risk parlay toss in: Paraguay +3.5 goals (-500)
- Average risk parlay: Paraguay +2.5 goals AND over 7.5 corners (-105)
- High risk parlay: Paraguay +1.5 AND over 9.5 corners (+290)
Record
Low risk: 69-19
Average risk: 44-44 (minus 1.5 units)
High risk: 27-60 (plus 10.2 units)
Overall units: plus 8.7
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